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Gaza militants preparing a Qassam rocket to fire at Israel. (AP)
Last update - 14:24 25/12/2008
ANALYSIS / Hamas seems to believe Jews 'understand only force'
By Avi Issacharoff
Tags: hamas, cease-fire 

The sharp turns that Hamas has made in its policy concerning the cease-fire with Israel more resembles a speeding racecar than a government policy. Despite statements that the organization's top-brass have made about being willing to resume the cease-fire in its previous format, the resumption of massive Qassam fire from Gaza to Israel indicates that Hamas may have decided to push for a head-on confrontation with Israel.

However, despite the significant escalation as over 80 Qassam missiles were fired into Israeli towns Wednesday, Hamas' interest was and still is to resume the cease-fire with Israel. However, Hamas wants to improve the terms of the deal. In doing so, Hamas' regime in Gaza is taking a risk that could lead to its toppling.

It seems that Hamas' decision to escalate the situation actually owes in part to the moderate tone which characterized its senior leaders' statements on Tuesday. These so-called moderate statements made Hamas' leadership be perceived as caving under Israeli pressure. Hamas cannot afford to display such a weak public image and so its leaders took immediate action to regain the militant element.
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The slaying of three Hamas militants near the border separating the Gaza Strip from Israel on Tuesday night also have served to persuade Hamas' leaders to opt for a confrontational position, as did Egyptian indifference to renewing the talks for a ceasefire. The fact that Israel did not open the crossings into the Strip to let in aid from Egypt was also believed to be connected to this decision.

Above all, the decision to renew the firing stems from an arrogant perception - which can also be observed from time to time on the Israeli side of the border - that the other side understands force better than anything else. Hamas seems to believe that "the Jews understand only force."

If violence at a low intensity fails to persuade Israel to let goods into the Strip, then, according to Hamas' approach, another escalation in violence could help Israel make the right decision. The organization's leadership expects an Israeli retaliation, but they assume it will be limited in scope. They deduce this from what they view as an Israeli reluctance to launch a massive land invasion.

As for Israeli air raids, assassinations and the sort, they would only serve to help Hamas regain some popularity - and not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank and across the Arab-speaking world.

At this stage, it will be the lack of an Israeli retaliation that will corner Hamas. That way, Arab television channels will not broadcast images of martyrs out of Gaza, and the organization will not be perceived as causing the escalation. Hamas, then, may prefer to engage in negotiations even without an Israeli retaliation.

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      1.   Avi`s suggestion: How to portray Israel as impotent 06:51  |  Rob 25/12/08
      2.   Writer obviously doesn`t live in the periphery 06:55  |  Beth 25/12/08
      3.   Israel and Gaza 06:59  |  rm 25/12/08
      4.   this is not a pr war 07:30  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 25/12/08
      5.   YES, RESTRAINT IS IMPORTANT: LOOK AT LEBANON IN 2006 08:00  |  Arik Silverman 25/12/08
      6.   Time and time again 08:06  |  Alex 25/12/08
      7.   the choice 08:30  |  ron 25/12/08
      8.   Cipora - Not PR, Politics 09:45  |  Mark of Lewiston 25/12/08
      9.   Their game 10:02  |  Tidhar 25/12/08
      10.   so amos harel we should not hit back 10:11  |  israel granit 25/12/08
      11.   CJK #4 you are right, this is not a PR War 10:12  |  Tzfonit 25/12/08
      12.   Israelis? Force? 10:24  |  John and the truth 25/12/08
      13.   The "Jews" left every square centimeter of Gaza in 2005. The ... 10:28  |  Aviv Rabinowitz 25/12/08
      14.   Hamas is Israel`s best PR 10:37  |  ScotGuy 25/12/08
      15.   Afterplan, masterplan 11:01  |  Colin 25/12/08
      16.   Its x-mas - that`s why its raining rockets 11:34  |  James 25/12/08
      17.   Just don`t say, "apartheid in Israel," or else... 11:34  |  Maureen Ann 25/12/08
      18.   #10, Tzfonit 11:47  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 25/12/08
      19.   Hamas 11:49  |  Me 25/12/08
      20.   #9, israel granit 11:52  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 25/12/08
      21.   Why would it not? 12:14  |  Clickfool 25/12/08
      22.   CJK - Israel is in no position to teach 12:17  |  spyguy 25/12/08
      23.   Re: #4/ Not a PR War to us, to them, though, it is 12:54  |  Motty Levi 25/12/08
      24.   Really and I wonder why after 60 yrs of Israeli agression 13:00  |  Labhras 25/12/08
      25.   22 spyguy overwhelms us with xmas cheer 13:01  |  victor hardman 25/12/08
      26.   Re: #16 13:11  |  Motty Levi 25/12/08
      27.   Both sides only understand force 13:27  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      28.   Israeli aggression 13:52  |  Natallie Durson 25/12/08
      29.   #25 Paul Harris aka Victor Harman wants xmas cheer 14:21  |  Labhras 25/12/08
      30.   Clickfool 14:22  |  Peter Williams 25/12/08
      31.   "understand only force" 14:24  |  Murray 25/12/08
      32.   Time for "Surgery" is coming 14:24  |  Daniel 25/12/08
      33.   Agression by Arabs or Israelis? 14:29  |  James 25/12/08
      34.   end 2-state nonsense #2 14:37  |  mark 25/12/08
      35.   #21 Clickfool, on cost-benefit of stolen real estate 14:48  |  Mark B. 25/12/08
      36.   Get real Natalie Durson 14:58  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      37.   Re: #32/Absolutely right 14:59  |  Motty Levi 25/12/08
      38.   Arik 5 15:16  |  Pamela 25/12/08
      39.   Arik 5 15:29  |  Pamela 25/12/08
      40.   Re: #31/ D-occane, Murray 15:37  |  Motty Levi 25/12/08
      41.   #5 Arik Silverman 15:48  |  sabra 25/12/08
      42.   Article about lack of Israeli retaliation, Durson 15:55  |  Hannah 25/12/08
      43.   "...the lack of an Israeli retaliation that will corner Hamas." 15:55  |  Smadar 25/12/08
      44.   Israel`s agression? Israel signed peace treaty with Egypt and ... 16:23  |  Jehudah Ben-Israel 25/12/08
      45.   It`s like "duh" - Hamas is a terroris organization 16:28  |  Boris 25/12/08
      46.   Avi, how you equate "low intensity"? 16:39  |  John Allen 25/12/08
      47.   #5 Arik 16:49  |  John Allen 25/12/08
      48.   #15 Colin, you are so right. 17:01  |  John Allen 25/12/08
      49.   Mark, Gaza was an opportunity 17:14  |  Jew- and Bookburner 25/12/08
      50.   Look ..... Precision guidance system 17:22  |  allang 25/12/08
      51.   For Peter Williams # 30 17:22  |  Clickfool 25/12/08
      52.   What Hamas really wants 17:27  |  Jay 25/12/08
      53.   It is a PR war 17:35  |  Brian Hard 25/12/08
      54.   Hamas` weapon is Israel`s policies 17:49  |  Brian Hard 25/12/08
      55.   "Hamas seems Jews understand only force". 17:49  |  Akram Zekaria 25/12/08
      56.   Livni`s meeting with Mubarak,was mere courtesy.nothing more. 17:58  |  Sarah 25/12/08
      57.   re: Murray 18:01  |  UsedToPostHere 25/12/08
      58.   perverse and strange anaysyis 18:04  |  k 25/12/08
      59.   #18: Cipora: Try Something New Besides Violence 18:22  |  Tupac 25/12/08
      60.   lanhras:query me this 18:28  |  Arie 25/12/08
      61.   please accept reality! 18:30  |  Space 25/12/08
      62.   #10 Tzfonit: How About Spending time in Gaza and WB Territories 18:38  |  Tupac 25/12/08
      63.   #20: Chipora: Funniest Thing I`ve Read Comming from a Settler 18:47  |  Tupac 25/12/08
      64.   Look ..... Precision guidance system 18:48  |  allang 25/12/08
      65.   Neither `perverse` or `strange` 18:53  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      66.   Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 19:07  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      67.   Hamas is Israel`s best PR 19:10  |  Jasper 25/12/08
      68.   0nly force? 19:10  |  Hermann Kuntz 25/12/08
      69.   in psychology, this is known as Projection 19:17  |  Jon 25/12/08
      70.   HAMAS Understands the Path to Empowerment of Terror 19:23  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 25/12/08
      71.   Tupac # 56 _ Get Your Facts Straight 19:28  |  Eli 25/12/08
      72.   PR wins the day for jasper 19:28  |  k 25/12/08
      73.   #28: Natallie Durson: Non Violence Worked in South Aferica 19:32  |  Tupac 25/12/08
      74.   The strength of a belief 19:34  |  Jose Marcio 25/12/08
      75.   open the gates of Gaza 19:44  |  peter 25/12/08
      76.   "Hamas is taking a risk that could lead to its toppling" 19:48  |  Fortuna Benmayor 25/12/08
      77.   Tupac # 56 _ Get Your Facts Straight 20:03  |  Eli 25/12/08
      78.   Fatherly concern for Hamas by a "Haaretz" scribe : 20:04  |  Absolute Sweden 25/12/08
      79.   Essentially correct Sarah 20:06  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      80.   Jon - it works both ways 20:16  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      81.   Allang - precision guidance system 20:19  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      82.   I agree Fortuna, small probability 20:23  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      83.   Arik Silverman # 5 _ Always, Always Wrong!!! 20:35  |  Eli 25/12/08
      84.   71 Eli: Learn to read I said: a "key factor" not the only factor 20:40  |  Tupac 25/12/08
      85.   Yes peter a most unusual siege where the `enemy` is being 20:42  |  x-ray 25/12/08
      86.   Wishful thinkin Stockholm Syndrome 20:51  |  Ines 25/12/08
      87.   Ever studdy the Egyptian OB and dispositions Eli? 20:54  |  Mark Lincoln 25/12/08
      88.   #60 Mark Lincoln--either way it is Deja Vu all over again 21:05  |  Labhras 25/12/08
      89.   Re # 4 This is for sure a war 21:11  |  Ines 25/12/08
      90.   I agree 100% 21:11  |  sammy 25/12/08
      91.   71: Eli: Learn to Read the Post 21:15  |  Tupac 25/12/08
      92.   Re # 5 Lets be honest 21:22  |  Ines 25/12/08
      93.   Arie I assume you mean Answer me this. 21:23  |  Labhras 25/12/08
      94.   Knowledge: "justified, true belief" 21:27  |  Aaron Levitt 25/12/08
      95.   Tupac # 81 _ You Are Correct_ I Should Learn To Read 21:43  |  Eli 25/12/08
      96.   Cipora: Don`t you get anything? 22:36  |  Edithann 25/12/08
      97.   77Mark Lincoln: Is Eli right about Nasser`s 1967 quote? 22:43  |  Rob 25/12/08
      98.   #60 FMEA 22:46  |  Prudence 25/12/08
      99.   #60 Mark/Cipora...They`re Geurilla Palestinians Freedom Fighters 22:52  |  Edithann 25/12/08
      100.   War vs. Negotiation 23:16  |  tad chase 25/12/08
      101.   an overlooked speech by nasrallah 23:22  |  harzion 25/12/08
      102.   #21 CF 00:11  |  Moshe 26/12/08
      103.   Edithann re: "Jews Rage for Revenge" 00:44  |  Lee 26/12/08
      104.   #87 Mark Lincoln 00:47  |  Moshe 26/12/08
      105.   Clickfool -Now who is the war mongering? 00:48  |  Lee 26/12/08
      106.   # 81 Mark Lincoln ........ prehistoric precision 01:04  |  allang 26/12/08
      107.   After 80 Qassams fired in one single day, Israel is the bad guy.. 01:15  |  Motty Levi 26/12/08
      108.   How you fight a man who fight you because of your religion ? 01:20  |  Akram Zekaria 26/12/08
      109.   Mark Lincoln #87 01:36  |  Gee 26/12/08
      110.   #83 Eli, anger, rage and frustration is clouding your reason 02:01  |  Mark B. 26/12/08
      111.   Nasarall speech 02:09  |  Ian 26/12/08
      112.   Clickfool 02:15  |  Peter Williams 26/12/08
      113.   #97 Rob 02:16  |  Moshe 26/12/08
      114.   # 81 Mark Lincoln ........ prehistoric precision 02:20  |  allang 26/12/08
      115.   #100 tad chase 02:26  |  Moshe 26/12/08
      116.   97~ Rob Mark Lincoln a Store for Rubbish Knowledge. 02:38  |  Akram Zekaria 26/12/08
      117.   Quite true Moshe 03:07  |  Mark Lincoln 26/12/08
      118.   Prudence - FMEA 03:14  |  Mark Lincoln 26/12/08
      119.   #101 harzion..an overlooked speech by nasrallah..Well harzion 03:20  |  Ross 26/12/08
      120.   Mark Lincoln # 87 _ Who Is Fantasizing. Been On The Loco Weed 03:36  |  Eli 26/12/08
      121.   Mark Lincoln # 87, Here Is Some More 03:39  |  Eli 26/12/08
      122.   Mark Lincoln # 87_ Here Is More 03:41  |  Eli 26/12/08
      123.   Mark Lincoln # 87 _ Here Is A Bit More. 03:43  |  Eli 26/12/08
      124.   Hamas made up of idiots 04:07  |  MichaelF 26/12/08
      125.   #17 - Uninformed Maureen Ann 04:10  |  MichaelF 26/12/08
      126.   #28 - Ignorant Natallie Durson 04:14  |  MichaelF 26/12/08
      127.   #44 - Jehudah Ben-Israel 04:17  |  MichaelF 26/12/08
      128.   97 - Rob 04:21  |  MichaelF 26/12/08
      129.   #99 - Edithann 04:24  |  MichaelF 26/12/08
      130.   Mark B. # 103 _ I Am Part Of The Human Race 04:47  |  Eli 26/12/08
      131.   Mark B. # 105 _ As a Human Being 05:04  |  Eli 26/12/08
      132.   Mark Lincoln _ Here Is Another Tid Bit From Harold Wilson 05:16  |  Eli 26/12/08
      133.   Akram Zakaria El Aziz _ Hala Bik Akhi 05:23  |  Eli 26/12/08
      134.   Elie Hul H` kavod for your e-m to Mark Lincoln. 05:23  |  Akram Zekaria 26/12/08
      135.   pulling a wool over Arab eyes 05:42  |  Capt Ahab 26/12/08
      136.   Move the Hamas prisoners to Sdarot and Ashkelon 06:02  |  Avraham G. 26/12/08
      137.   fighting for water rights is old as the Bible 06:32  |  Capt Ahab 26/12/08
      138.   115 on FMEA by M.L. 06:47  |  Prudence 26/12/08
      139.   #8, Mark 06:49  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 26/12/08
      140.   young Pals working on Science Fair project 06:59  |  Capt Ahab 26/12/08
      141.   just curious for a glass of water 07:18  |  Capt Ahab 26/12/08
      142.   Israel may go into Gaza 07:20  |  Reid 26/12/08
      143.   Labhras - Hamas rejected the Saudi Plan 07:39  |  Reid 26/12/08
      144.   #140, Reid 07:43  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 26/12/08
      145.   Hamas - Not as smart as people think 08:02  |  Reid 26/12/08
      146.   In the meantime, Israel has done NOTHING concrete for PEACE 08:46  |  Ivar 26/12/08
      147.   sderot, expectations (always the OTHER side) 08:53  |  Deborah 26/12/08
      148.   Cipora - Thanks 08:55  |  Reid 26/12/08
      149.   148 reid: good but thinkig but wishful 09:49  |  prudence 26/12/08
      150.   It`s simple, Lee # 105 10:32  |  Clickfool 26/12/08
      151.   #149 prudence (FIFTH TRY)re:Wishful Thinking?? 20:05  |  Ross 26/12/08
      152.   #129 MichaelF....It`s only force that Israel understands... 00:13  |  Edithann 27/12/08
      153.   Reid 06:18  |  Peter Williams 27/12/08
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