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ANALYSIS / Would a weak Hamas or no Hamas be better in Gaza?
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: israel news, israel, hamas 

In a series of blows during the past 24 hours, the most severe since the Israel Defense Forces operation began in the Gaza Strip 20 days ago, Hamas was brought very close to surrender.

It is unlikely that we will see white flags, because the group recognizes that this would have a devastating effect on its image. But the Israeli military pressure has destroyed most of the Palestinian defenses in the heart of Gaza City, a day after the group had to agree in principle to the Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire a deal it is not very happy with.



At the start of the fighting, there was talk in the IDF of a Hamas division, trained and funded by Iran, ready to confront an invasion of the Gaza Strip. This division evaporated and it is doubtful whether it ever existed.

The situation as of last night was as follows: Said Sayyam and Salah Abu Shreich, two senior Hamas figures, were killed in an air strike in Jabaliya. The home of another Hamas leader, Mahmoud al-Zahar, is surrounded. Infantry, armor and special forces are operating in the center of the city, very close to the Hamas "security quarter" southwest of the city, where most of the command and control centers of the group are situated.

Even in the center of the city, Hamas gunmen are opting to avoid direct encounters with the IDF. In most cases they are choosing to escape along with thousands of civilians. The Hamas announcement in Cairo two days ago began the countdown toward a cease-fire.

The head of the political-security bureau at the Defense Ministry, Amos Gilad, delivered a positive message to Egypt regarding Cairo's cease-fire initiative. Israel's "kitchen-cabinet" still deliberated late into the night, where the Ehud Barak-Tzipi Livni alliance grew tighter in an effort to block the last minute warlike urge of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to continue the offensive.

The army sensed Hamas' weakness when units left their defensive positions in the Zeytun neighborhood. Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi approved the assault and forces reached the center of the city through the gap. On the way, the IDF killed most of the members of a unit comprising militants trained by Iran.

The latest move has is risks. The IDF is constantly concerned that a single mistake may lead to mass killing of Palestinian civilians, or a surprise attack by Hamas that may affect public opinion in Israel. This nearly happened yesterday when UNRWA facilities were hit.

On Wednesday a commando force suffered six soldiers injured when a wall collapsed on them. Another force had destroyed a tunnel and it caused the collapse nearby.

GOC Southern Command Yoav Galant ordered soldiers not to stay in multi-story buildings, fearing the explosion of booby-trapped devices that could cause many casualties.

Meanwhile it seems that at least the Hamas leadership in Gaza has began to fathom the seriousness of its position. Two Hamas leaders in the Strip, Razi Hamad and Ahmed Yusuf, accused the group's leadership in Damascus of "bringing a terrible disaster on Gaza."

The two are considered members of the pragmatic wing of the party, and charged the Damascus-based leadership with making a terrible mistake in ordering Hamas to foil the extension of the cease-fire agreement with Israel in December.

However, in Damascus it is not clear that the message has been received. Ramadan Shalah, head of the Islamic Jihad, told Al Jazeera that the Palestinians will continue their resistance in Gaza and the city will not surrender because "victory is imminent."

The head of the Hamas politburo, Khaled Meshal, who is central in the decision that led to the events in the Strip, spoke in Damascus last night of a Palestinian "victory in Gaza."

During the speech, delivered live on Al Jazeera, breaking news announced that Said Sayyam and his brother Iyad had been killed in Gaza.

The latest developments have contributed to optimism in Israel. However, those who are still toying with the idea of bringing down Hamas entirely should weigh what is best: a weakened Hamas or complete anarchy in the Strip, with no one in power to threaten or to make indirect agreements with? Gaza can still deteriorate into another Somalia.

Related articles:
  • IDF kills Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam in Gaza airstrike
  • Egypt television: Israel agrees in principle to Gaza truce plan
  • Boy, 7, seriously hurt as Gaza rockets slam into Be'er Sheva
  • Olmert to Ban: Gunmen fired at IDF troops from UN Gaza compound
  • ANALYSIS / Key to Israeli exit from Gaza rests with Egypt, U.S.
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      1.   Like a Phoenix 03:45  |  Mark of Lewiston 16/01/09
      2.   above 03:52  |  abraham cohen 16/01/09
      3.   weak 04:29  |  jack 16/01/09
      4.   #1 Mark 04:31  |  Turkish Jew 16/01/09
      5.   More inane preparation of the public 05:15  |  Mark Lincoln 16/01/09
      6.   Hamas as JUST a political party is better than Fatah 05:31  |  Andrei 16/01/09
      7.   Hamas should be destroyed! 05:35  |  VLAD 16/01/09
      8.   Hamas is as weak as any Arab nation 05:38  |  Jeff 16/01/09
      9.   #5 Mark 06:15  |  Brian 16/01/09
      10.   A new Somalia next door in Gaza 06:31  |  Brian 16/01/09
      11.   Self - inflicting wounds Palestinian style 06:31  |  allang 16/01/09
      12.   one can bring the horse to water but one can`t force it to drink 06:31  |  Susanna/Shoshana 16/01/09
      13.   The article is RIGHT! Mark Lincoln #5 utterly wrong! 09:53  |  S 16/01/09
      14.   Show Iran 09:54  |  avi 16/01/09
      15.   If this is true... 10:01  |  Macabee 16/01/09
      16.   Re:8 10:16  |  zakaria 16/01/09
      17.   Hamas was created by Israel to destroy Yaser Arafat 10:36  |  Prof Bader 16/01/09
      18.   Hamas 10:42  |  siem 16/01/09
      19.   No Hamas 10:51  |  Yassin O`Brian 16/01/09
      20.   Weak Hamas or no Hamas 10:57  |  I. Stille 16/01/09
      21.   Good analysis, thank you. 11:19  |  lily 16/01/09
      22.   Does Israel need Hamas as a pretext not to make peace? 21:03  |  Markus Grafenburg 16/01/09
      23.   No Hamas 21:05  |  BRIDGET. Y. 16/01/09
      24.   Lies 21:06  |  Hassan 16/01/09
      25.   to # 24 22:44  |  Sick of Pals 16/01/09
      26.   #24 Lies by Hassan 23:06  |  Uffe 16/01/09
      27.   to I. Stille #20 23:07  |  zeev 16/01/09
      28.   A Response to #24 Hasan 23:11  |  Paul K 16/01/09
      29.   harel? you dont get a choice 23:43  |  trust me 16/01/09
      30.   In Short, Hamas Got Creamed (5th try) 01:22  |  Jeff Northridge 17/01/09
      31.   weak or no Hamaz 01:33  |  mila 17/01/09
      32.   weak or no Hamas ? 03:51  |  Klaus 17/01/09
      33.   The author only presents two possibilities 04:06  |  stella 17/01/09
      34.   Hamas shoud be weakened but not destroyed 04:08  |  Greg 17/01/09
      35.   No Hamas is the way to go, Let the pals vote for peace 07:04  |  Monty 17/01/09
      36.   to Paul K #28 08:24  |  zeev 17/01/09
      37.   #30 Fake Jeff Northridge 18:18  |  Jeff Northridge 17/01/09
      38.   to Jeff Northridge #30 (3rd try) 18:40  |  zeev 17/01/09
      39.   Moron, it is the disposession of Palestinians 19:53  |  Americans 17/01/09
      40.   4 Turkish Jew - Denigrating Shoah Victims 22:37  |  Mark of Lewiston 17/01/09
      41.   To Mark Lincoln -5- 01:55  |  B Saleem 18/01/09
      42.   Blow on Hamas or on the Jews?! 01:56  |  Ed 18/01/09
      43.   marc lincoln 04:30  |  hillbilly 18/01/09
      44.   markus 04:43  |  saladin 18/01/09
      45.   answer: NO hamas 04:48  |  hillbilly 18/01/09
      46.   abraham cohen 04:49  |  saladin 18/01/09
      47.   to Turkish Jew #4 (6th try) 09:53  |  zeev 21/01/09
      48.   to abraham cohen #2 11:05  |  zeev 23/01/09
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