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Last update - 01:45 07/02/2009
Haaretz Poll: Kadima, Likud are neck-and-neck with 4 days to go
By Yossi Verter and Mazal Mualem
Tags: Israel Elections, Kadima 

Likud and Kadima are in a neck-and-neck race to be the next Knesset's largest party, according to the latest Haaretz-Dialog poll.



The poll, the last to be published before next Tuesday's election, showed the gap between the two parties continuing to narrow: It is now down to only two seats in Likud's favor.
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In contrast, Avigdor Lieberman's far-right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party continues to surge: The latest poll, which surveyed 1,000 people - double the usual number - showed it winning 18 seats, up from 15 last week. If this forecast proves accurate, Labor will be relegated, for the first time in its history, to the fourth-largest party, with only 14 seats.

The close race between the right-wing Likud and more centrist Kadima has finally injected some long-overdue excitement into the campaign. A few weeks ago, Likud seemed to have victory sewed up. Now it is in real danger of losing out to Kadima.

But when it comes to forming a coalition, Likud still has a clear edge over its rival: Even in the unlikely event of Lieberman choosing to throw his support behind Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni rather than Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu, the only coalition Livni could form would be highly unstable. And without Lieberman, she has no coalition at all.

Over the course of the campaign, both Likud and Kadima have lost seats. Likud, however, has lost more, mainly to Lieberman - in part thanks to Kadima's vicious attacks on Netanyahu. Netanyahu therefore plans to spend the last few days before the election in a major drive to win these votes back, primarily by warning that a vote for any smaller rightist party increases the chances of Kadima becoming the largest party and being given first crack at forming a government.

With regard to the overall right-left split, however, the right has maintained a consistent edge throughout the campaign. Out of a total of 120 seats, the latest poll gives the leftist bloc only 54 seats, including eight for the Arab parties, which would not actually be included in any government - and which dislike Livni as much as they do Netanyahu.

The rightist bloc, in contrast, has 66 seats. This gives Netanyahu a choice of four possible coalitions: an exclusively rightist-religious one (which he does not want), a rightist-religious one with the addition of Labor, a rightist-religious one with the addition of Kadima, or a government with both Labor and Kadima plus a few smaller parties.

However, if Likud indeed wins fewer than 30 seats, none of these configurations would make a stable coalition: Likud would have little ability to impose its own agenda, and the coalition might well fall apart swiftly. As a result, Likud officials are already up in arms about the mismanaged campaign, and even if the party wins, the knives are liable to come out afterward.

Twenty-nine percent of respondents said they had not yet decided who to vote for. The real rate, according to the poll's supervisor, Prof. Camil Fuchs of Tel-Aviv University, is probably closer to 15 percent. That is still equivalent to 18 seats - theoretically enough to radically change the outcome of the vote.

However, most of the movement is likely to be within blocs rather than between them, meaning the rightist bloc will still probably emerge with an edge.

This may be why, despite the increasingly close race between Likud and Kadima, most of the public remains convinced that Likud has the victory sewed up. Only 30 percent of respondents said they want Netanyahu to be the next prime minister. But 64 percent said they think he will be.

If Yisrael Beiteinu does become the third largest party, Lieberman will be able to demand a senior ministerial portfolio for himself - defense, finance or foreign affairs.

Labor, in this scenario, would not be able to veto the larger party's participation in the government, which is why Labor chairman Ehud Barak has been careful to say that he does not rule out sitting in a coalition with Lieberman. With only 14 seats, however, Barak is likely to have trouble overruling members of his party who would prefer to have Labor remain in opposition.


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      1.   go to the polling booth, go to the ballot-box, and VOTE. 06:08  |  Joseph.E 06/02/09
      2.   Perhaps greater numbers of Israeli women voters support Livni 06:11  |  Smadar 06/02/09
      3.   Green Movement-Meimad will be the surprise 06:35  |  Eldar 06/02/09
      4.   Good Luck Israel 06:37  |  Shimon Cleopas 06/02/09
      5.   Livni isnt more popular but small parties are spliitng the vote 06:44  |  zionist forever 06/02/09
      6.   Israeli democracy is a farce 07:22  |  Daniel 06/02/09
      7.   Your stupid poll 07:25  |  I Gold 06/02/09
      8.   The real goals of zionism 08:25  |  Sami H 06/02/09
      9.   Let`s hope Bibi wins 08:50  |  Guido 06/02/09
      10.   Polls never tell the real story, so just make sure you vote Likud 09:06  |  Silver 06/02/09
      11.   The Perfect Team to lead Israel 09:07  |  MJ 06/02/09
      12.   Why left and right? 09:23  |  Pete 06/02/09
      13.   Livni a leftist? 09:29  |  Hanna 06/02/09
      14.   I GOLD (#7) from LA CA 09:51  |  Gil 06/02/09
      15.   Can`t trust Israeli numbers 14:21  |  Jay 06/02/09
      16.   Pete (#12) 14:31  |  alberto 06/02/09
      17.   Green Movement-Meimad 16:27  |  I love Israel 06/02/09
      18.   I Love Israel # 17 Green Mermaids? 19:00  |  Jeff Northridge 06/02/09
      19.   Voting for another bunch of "jobnicks"..! 20:52  |  Stephen. 06/02/09
      20.   Smadar #2: I keep hoping too, but it doesn`t look good - 23:04  |  ivo 06/02/09
      21.   daniel in montreal 23:07  |  claudine 06/02/09
      22.   #18 Jeff Northridge. Read any Australian newspapers lately? 23:11  |  Maureen Ann 06/02/09
      23.   Shimon Cleopas #4: take a trip to Israel - 23:37  |  ivo 06/02/09
      24.   Green Movement Meimad is the alternative that everyone hopes for 00:32  |  Akiva 07/02/09
      25.   A strong shift to the right. Scary!!! 00:41  |  Talia Nadal 07/02/09
      26.   Harretz Poll. 01:30  |  Macclancy 07/02/09
      27.   BiBi is the best of the choices;he has a voice for Israel in the 04:23  |  glenna 07/02/09
      28.   Key word Centristic! 05:14  |  rigma 07/02/09
      29.   Te totally disfunctional nation 05:19  |  Mark Lincoln 07/02/09
      30.   What Kadima can do tomorrow that couldn`t do yesterday ? 06:15  |  Akram Zekaria 07/02/09
      31.   and they shuffle the cards again... 07:57  |  eric 07/02/09
      32.   Neck and neck in a race to save Settlements Enterprise 08:38  |  Ivar 07/02/09
      33.   to Guido #9 - 3rd try 08:39  |  zeev 07/02/09
      34.   What have these parties done for you? 10:11  |  Zwygart 07/02/09
      35.   to Akram Zekaria #29 12:27  |  zeev 07/02/09
      36.   36- Zeev "Did I read you correctly" (2nd try). 20:10  |  Akram Zekaria 07/02/09
      37.   I Gold Ure right 20:24  |  Hillel 07/02/09
      38.   to Pete # 12 21:56  |  Mordecai 07/02/09
      39.   Big Mistake 22:07  |  Mordecai 07/02/09
      40.   Kadima equals trouble 01:57  |  Connie 08/02/09
      41.   Livni the leftist defeatist must and will de defeated 02:01  |  Jerry Judinsky 08/02/09
      42.   The leftist Livni and her corrupt Kadima will lose 02:56  |  Harry Weiser 08/02/09
      43.   HAARETZ LEFTIST PROPAGANDA POLL is WRONG, LIVNI WILL LOSE!! 03:03  |  HENRY MANN 08/02/09
      44.   Good Luck Israel-III 04:50  |  Shimon Cleopas 08/02/09
      45.   #20 ivo You`re right, a genuine push for peace would have 05:47  |  Smadar 08/02/09
      46.   Kadima and Labor: Let the right wing coalition be formed 10:06  |  GalileeHero 08/02/09
      47.   Haaretz polls can be trusted like a felon 10:10  |  a voice 08/02/09
      48.   A. Zekaria #36, as inconsistent as ever (4th try) 10:20  |  zeev 10/02/09
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