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Israel Election Guide: Can Netanyahu be stopped? Can Lieberman?
By Bradley Burston
Tags: Israel Elections 

Click here for more articles by Bradley Burston

Can Benjamin Netanyahu's cruise to the premiership be scuttled? Can Avigdor Lieberman's juggernaut be run off the road at the last moment?

The answer, if current polling trends hold, is yes ? but from the standpoint of coalition realities, it appears that only one of them can be blocked in his drive for power, not both.
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For months, Netanyahu has been treated as a shoo-in. For weeks, meanwhile, commentators have agreed that Lieberman is the story of this election campaign. But in a nation where tabloids have to compete with day-to-day life for sensationalism and drama, stories alone do not translate to votes, and no one knows better than Netanyahu - who overcame a 20 percentage point deficit in 1996 to defeat Shimon Peres for the premiership, that there is no such thing as a sure thing.

As the order of the tables below suggests, it remains true that when a new government is sworn in about a month from now, Netanyahu will likely be the prime minister and Lieberman his key coalition partner. But the variables in the coalition-forming process are as numerous as the record number of parties, 33, on the ballot this time around.

One striking example, as investigative reporter Motti Gilat noted in the Israel Hayom daily last week, is a growing uncertainty over a long-simmering police investigation into Lieberman. Arguing politically motivated police harassment, Lieberman has turned the criminal probe to electoral advantage.

Lieberman loyalists maintain that if Netanyahu is serious about stability as a major criterion for coalition building, he will have little option but to welcome a seat-rich Yisrael Beiteinu into the government. But if Gilat is correct, the case against Lieberman could give Netanyahu, or any potential coalition leader, second thoughts.

"If, nonetheless, Netanyahu and Livni insist upon shooting themselves in the foot and attaching Lieberman to the government, they will be forced to bid him farewell within five to seven months," Gilat wrote. "Lieberman is apparently cornered; the noose is already around his neck. Some depositions abroad have already been completed, and two will soon take place in two nations overseas."

Other scenarios envision the possibility that Lieberman could be a partner to a Netanyahu-free government. [See Dark Horse, below]

The real story of this election may well prove to be the undecided vote, which has been conservatively estimated at a whopping 20 percent of the electorate, representing no fewer than 24 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. This, at a time when polls show that no individual party, even Netanyahu's survey-leading Likud, may win more than 25 or 26 seats.

The enormous potential of the undecided vote - along with the opacity of the candidates' declarations - has thus given new meaning to the term "secret ballot." No one knows how many voters will show up, switch sides in the polling booth, or stay home.

The bottom line: If Kadima and Labor gain even a modicum of strength as the finish line nears, and the Likud weakens, the effect on the futures of Netanyahu and Lieberman could be telling.

COALITION CALCULATOR:

[Numbers expressed are in Knesset seats expected to be won by parties, as predicted in a weighted average of six polls released at the end of the week. Number of Knesset seats needed for majority is 61. Not included was a Livni-led center-left coalition, which could expect only 45-59 seats.]

NETANYAHU-LED RIGHT-CENTER COALITION

LIKUD / NETANYAHU 26

YISRAEL BEITEINU / LIEBERMAN 19

LABOR / BARAK 15

NATIONAL UNION + JEWISH HOME 6

_______



TOTAL: 66

WITH SHAS: 76



NETANYAHU-LED LIBERMAN-FREE COALITION

LIKUD / NETANYAHU 26

KADIMA / LIVNI 24

LABOR / BARAK 15


TOTAL: 65


WITH SHAS: 75


DARK HORSE: LIVNI-LED COALITION [IF KADIMA EDGES LIKUD]


KADIMA / LIVNI 25

YISRAEL BEITEINU / LIEBERMAN 19

LABOR / BARAK 15

SHAS 10

TOTAL: 69

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  1.   No need to stop Netanyahu of Lieberman 11:45  |  Guido 08/02/09
  2.   BURSTON: CAN THE WILL OF THE ELECTORATE BE THWARTED? 13:00  |  Nemesis 08/02/09
  3.   Stopped? Why? 13:16  |  Rick 08/02/09
  4.   Burston: If your bubbie had baitsems she`d be your zadie 14:22  |  no lefty loonie 08/02/09
  5.   Livni has no chance and here`s why .. 15:15  |  martin knopfman 08/02/09
  6.   They are a side show - Iran is the real issu 15:31  |  Manny Goldstein 08/02/09
  7.   How eager people are to see another 100 years of fighting... 16:19  |  Goy 08/02/09
  8.   33 political parties! 16:46  |  Yonatan 08/02/09
  9.   Can the israeli public be stopped from voting for Liebermann? 16:49  |  Kris Lazar 08/02/09
  10.   Bradley, you`ve just shown us howt: vote Meretz or Meimad! 17:09  |  Tzfonit 08/02/09
  11.   #6, Goy 17:41  |  Bruce 08/02/09
  12.   if these two get power after elections I guarantee 17:50  |  mehmet 08/02/09
  13.   #6 - Israel has no choice but to fight .. 17:55  |  redbourn 08/02/09
  14.   Political Calculus 18:27  |  Brendan 08/02/09
  15.   Kadima will not get 25 seats 18:58  |  Silver 08/02/09
  16.   Response to # 4 no lefty loonie 19:03  |  Silver 08/02/09
  17.   Can Ashkenazi Talk Good? 19:15  |  Yosemite 08/02/09
  18.   What`s missing from the calculus 19:37  |  Michael N 08/02/09
  19.   What Is This? 33 Political Parties? 20:26  |  Jeff Northridge 08/02/09
  20.   Dear Mr. Burston: your leftist friend Livni win lose (100%) 20:57  |  Harry Weiser 08/02/09
  21.   Jeff Northridge #18, you forgot who else 21:31  |  Tzfonit 08/02/09
  22.   #12, mehmet 09:32  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/02/09
  23.   Why do so many voters NOT vote? 10:39  |  GraveKucinicPauNade 10/02/09
  24.   B bar B rotation formula 22:49  |  b m 15/02/09
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