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A still, small, hesitant voice By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff Tags: Gilad Shalit, Israel News  At noon on Wednesday, as the security cabinet in Jerusalem was discussing the negotiations on the cease-fire and the deal to secure the return of abducted soldier Gilad Shalit, an Israel Defense Forces major-general with some expertise in such contacts tried to analyze their prospects. Very few people in the country are fully aware of the unfolding events; key among them, of course, is Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. But it is not easy to discern his stance on this matter, not least because it has fluctuated significantly over the past few weeks, even if Olmert insists he has not budged at all during this time. "I simply cannot understand it," the army officer said. "How the hell does he manage to screw up this story every time?" The events of the past few weeks are reminiscent of the period preceding the deal with Hezbollah for abducted soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev; the bodies of the two reservists were returned to Israel last July in return for the release of murderer Samir Kuntar and other Lebanese prisoners. Then, too, it looked as though Olmert backed the agreement concluded by his emissary to the negotiations, Ofer Dekel. Then, too, hours before the decisive moment, a still, small voice emerged from his bureau and said: "Maybe not." Dekel, with no little guile, enlisted the soldiers' families and the media in his struggle to regain the prime minister's support - and succeeded, thanks in great measure to the intervention of Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. Recently, just before the election, the IDF and the entire defense establishment was under the impression that Olmert was flexible and ready to pay a big price. Which is why Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad was sent time and again to Cairo to discuss the cease-fire, and why Ofer Dekel spent time abroad, also dealing with the Shalit case. Both moved ahead in parallel, with the intention of wrapping up the talks. But now Olmert's announcement has brought the whole issue back to the starting point: There will be no extensive opening of the crossings between Israel and Gaza without Shalit's release. Advertisement As if that were not enough, the prime minister has become mired in another petty political squabble. Olmert's bureau offended Amos Gilad, and Gilad responded with an unusually ferocious attack on the prime minister, which was reported by Ben Caspit in the daily Maariv. Olmert reprimanded both Gilad and his superior, Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Extensive media coverage of these squabbles diverted the discussion from the central question: how much Israel is willing to pay to bring Shalit home. National hero Gilad Shalit, in the meantime, has become a national hero. His portrait is emblazoned on T-shirts and the soldiers want him back. (They expressed their opinions via graffiti spray-painted on the walls of Gaza homes during last month's operation, and also by writing his name on a blank ballot slip on election day.) But because of the new government that will likely be formed, the Shalit family apparently has ample reason for concern. Their cardinal worry is that if Olmert does not conclude the deal while he is still in office, Shalit will remain in captivity for a very long time and might become a second Ron Arad - the Israel Air Force navigator captured more than 20 years ago. Representatives of the Shalit family recently met with Benjamin Netanyahu, who promised them that he will not oppose a deal concluded by Olmert. They also gleaned the impression that Netanyahu will restrain the Likud faction, and subdue excessively sharp attacks on any such agreement. But the family fears what Netanyahu left unsaid: that if he forms the next government, it is unlikely that he himself will agree to release such a large number of murderers. Shalits are not worried about Netanyahu per se, but about the people who will join a narrow right-wing government under him. A coalition where Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu will constitute the "moderate" wing, will find it difficult to accept the emerging agreement, especially because the extremist wing will include MKs who will demand the release of Yigal Amir, the assassin of Yitzhak Rabin, if Palestinian terrorists are released. Shalit's parents were appalled to hear a comment attributed to Moshe Ya'alon, a former chief of staff and a key contender for the defense portfolio in a narrow government, to the effect that he is ready to lead a team from Sayeret Matkal, the ultra-elite commando unit he once commanded, on a mission to free their son. It is not difficult to imagine the parents' frustration in light of the inability of the Shin Bet security service and the IDF to supply accurate intelligence about where Gilad Shalit is being held, given the fact that he is probably only about 10 kilometers away from the Israeli border. Surprisingly, Israel did not try to abduct some "bargaining chips" of its own - senior Hamas officials whose capture could lend additional weight in the talks over Shalit's release. Aviva and Noam Shalit, Gilad's parents, feel that the Israeli public stands behind them. The dominant public and media narrative is saying that Israel "must do everything" to bring Gilad home. But the parents know that the publication of the list of Palestinians to be released in return, which includes a very large number of prisoners "with blood on their hands," will generate a counter-reaction and also lead to renewed pressure by bereaved parents on the government to vote against the deal. Hamas as winner The release of the murderers will mean freeing experienced and highly ideological terrorists. More important, perhaps, is the fact that this will allow Hamas to position itself as the big winner of Operation Cast Lead, even if it lost the battles. The reception the released prisoners will be given in Gaza City's Palestine Square - the square that IDF tanks almost reached a month ago - will be the "victory photo" coveted by Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud a-Zahar. Beyond the emotional realm, the major argument advanced by the deal's supporters touches on the state's obligation to its soldiers. Most soldiers, conscripts in particular, know how easy it is to evade combat service. To preserve their motivation to volunteer (indeed, in practice it is volunteering) for such service, it is important for them to know that Israel will do everything to bring them back if they find themselves in Shalit's situation. "Sorry, we tried" is simply not good enough. Ashkenazi and Barak understand this very well. Last June, in an interview to Haaretz, Noam Shalit described a particularly difficult talk he had had with the prime minister. Shalit quoted Olmert as saying (and this was not denied by the Prime Minister's Bureau) that there is no contract that obliges the state to return every citizen from captivity. He used the word citizen, not soldier. (In Hebrew the word for citizen also means civilian.) That, Shalit said, is the way a person who never fought talks, someone who was never in danger himself. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Ivrit in Iraq Iraqi professor asks Israel for shipment of Hebrew books. Racist reality show Reality show contestant calls his shoe 'Mohammed', angering Israel's Arabs.   1.   Don`t free murderers for Shalit 15:25  |  Mark Jeffery Koch 20/02/09

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