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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting U.S. President Barack Obama in White House last month.
 Reuters
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Last update - 09:20 04/06/2009
ANALYSIS / Netanyahu will comply with Obama's demands
By Aluf Benn
Tags: settlements, Netanyahu, Obama 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will back down. Another week, another month, and he will give into American pressure and will be forced to accept the two-state solution and also agree to some sort of concessions on settlements. So far there has been no real negotiation between Israel and the Obama administration, just an exchange of declarations. There are no personal links between the Prime Minister's Bureau and the White House. Only after Thursday, following the "conciliatory address" of U.S. President Barack Obama to the Arab and Muslim world in Cairo, will the real discussion begin. Or maybe not, and Israel will continue to be hit in the head until Obama is satisfied.

The Americans are demanding complete cessation of construction in the settlements, or in the language of President Obama, "no settlements." Netanyahu insists on "natural growth," but has no troops. Not one of Israel's supporters in the U.S. has stood up against the popular president to defend the construction of a new neighborhood in Ma'aleh Adumim or a home for a young couple in Itzhar. At most, they might ask Obama to be a little more gentle and not bash Israel.

The repetition of statements by Obama and senior administration officials, calling for complete cessation of settlement activity, have placed the president in a position from which he will find it difficult to pull back. Henceforth, every approval of a construction plan in a settlement will be regarded as a personal challenge to the president, just about equivalent to the North Korean nuclear tests.
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Obama believes in interests, and his supreme interest is the rehabilitation of ties between the U.S. and the Arab and Muslim worlds. George W. Bush was perceived to be a pawn in Israel's hand, and Obama must show he is not like his predecessor. A freeze on settlements is his gift to his Saudi and Egyptian hosts. Enforcing the freeze will be his test of credibility.

The overt dispute with Israel is meant to bolster his image in Arab eyes. If Netanyahu would have agreed immediately to his demand, Obama would have lost points. He wants to come to Cairo after being seen as having hit Israel's right-wing prime minister on the head.

The American determination caught Netanyahu and his aides by surprise, and they were neither party to the drafts of the president's speech nor were they able to influence its content. The PM's Bureau is finding it difficult to function and is barely able to respond to telephone calls, much less put together a counter-spin. Netanyahu sent the "dovish" ministers, Dan Meridor and Ehud Barak, to the U.S. in an effort to explain it was not possible to freeze it all because that is not realistic. The Americans have not budged.

The relatively good news for Netanyahu this week came in an interview Obama gave to the BBC, in which he discussed a return to the road map and made demands of the Palestinians and the Arab states. Obama said patience is needed, and essentially granted Netanyahu a chance for another meeting, at which the prime minister will have to accept an American diktat.

It will not be simple. From Israel's point of view freezing the settlements is not merely a slogan but raises real complexities, even before the protests begin and the settlers and rightist parties begin their resistance. The government is finding it difficult to evacuate outposts, so how will it enforce a freeze on construction?

Netanyahu will do everything to avoid this confrontation and will therefore have to give up his many years of opposition to the idea of a Palestinian state. He will then hope that Arab refusals will bog the entire process down and will save him the trouble of having to discuss really difficult issues like evacuating settlements, Jerusalem and the refugees.


Related articles:
  • Obama: U.S. will be 'honest' with Israel on settlements
  • Crisis nears as U.S. slams Israeli settlement policy
  • U.S. demands Israel halt construction in East Jerusalem market
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      1.   In your dreams 03:45  |  Rabbi Yakov Lazaros 04/06/09
      2.   Hope peace fails? 03:50  |  Ben 04/06/09
      3.   Israel is the problem. 03:55  |  WHG 04/06/09
      4.   Israel has a perfect way of escaping the full freeze 04:03  |  binny 04/06/09
      5.   Obama is playing with fire by flirting with Arabs. 04:04  |  Fortuna Benmayor 04/06/09
      6.   Putting the time clock on Israel 04:10  |  binny 04/06/09
      7.   Same article 04:11  |  Arie 04/06/09
      8.   Isreael should be resolute 04:26  |  Brod 04/06/09
      9.   Israel should comply and start really destroying unauthorized pal 04:42  |  Absolite Sweden 04/06/09
      10.   Memo to Israel 05:01  |  betz55 04/06/09
      11.   BIBI`S VACTAION 05:03  |  Ed 04/06/09
      12.   "The government is finding it difficult to evacuate outposts" 05:04  |  curious 04/06/09
      13.   Obama 05:05  |  The Maintenance Man 04/06/09
      14.   Arab refusals. 05:07  |  sandra chitayat 04/06/09
      15.   Rabbi Yakov is wrong 05:08  |  Ilene 04/06/09
      16.   What is this "Land for Peace" Rubbish? 05:30  |  igal 04/06/09
      17.   Rabbi Lazeros - Israel Is NOT Likud 05:31  |  Mark of Lewiston 04/06/09
      18.   Stand up? 05:33  |  Iain 04/06/09
      19.   Israel does not have a choice 05:42  |  Virgil 04/06/09
      20.   Rabbi, America is United States of AMERICA 05:48  |  Oklahoman 04/06/09
      21.   yakov lazaros 1 05:51  |  potobac 04/06/09
      22.   Netenyahu wiil never concede on the settlements natural growth 05:51  |  Sarah 04/06/09
      23.   Then what? 05:53  |  Mark Lincoln 04/06/09
      24.   Define `demands`? 05:58  |  Mark Lincoln 04/06/09
      25.   Peace 06:02  |  Ann 04/06/09
      26.   Dont give up on us Bibi 06:04  |  Shimon Cleopas 04/06/09
      27.   History lesson to the Rabbi 06:07  |  Bazmann 04/06/09
      28.   What settlements ? Tricky word 06:25  |  KarmielKid 04/06/09
      29.   Wow, Cipora wishes she wrote like that... 06:35  |  BBSNews 04/06/09
      30.   dear Rabbi Yakov Lazaros 06:35  |  Michael 04/06/09
      31.   "Maintenance Man" please seek help, the election is over... 06:38  |  BBSNews 04/06/09
      32.   Ya` nailed it, Aluf 06:49  |  Johnboy 04/06/09
      33.   barak is right on settlements, wrong on arabs 06:56  |  g. lee 04/06/09
      34.   The US is strong but Obama is weak!! 07:00  |  Mark 04/06/09
      35.   Comply with demands? 07:04  |  Zev 04/06/09
      36.   Obama`s demands 07:21  |  Journe 04/06/09
      37.   90% of Americans support Obama; 80% of Jews 07:33  |  Dolphin 04/06/09
      38.   dream on 07:48  |  Serge 04/06/09
      39.   the silent majority 07:56  |  Gregor 04/06/09
      40.   Obama will make a fool of himself 07:59  |  Mousa 04/06/09
      41.   Everything Lesson to Bazmann 08:04  |  Heymish 04/06/09
      42.   Bibi, Don`t Back Down! We`re With You! 08:11  |  Heather Czerniak 04/06/09
      43.   Surprise? 08:17  |  Damboviteanu 04/06/09
      44.   Aluf Benn gives no reason or support for his statements 08:24  |  redbourn 04/06/09
      45.   Come & join/ Czerniak 09:23  |  Damboviteanu 04/06/09
      46.   What will happen? 09:37  |  Paul 04/06/09
      47.   And Jackie Gleason said ... 09:59  |  KYOT 04/06/09
      48.   Realities 10:05  |  Colin 04/06/09
      49.   # 1 self-delusional rabbi 10:19  |  Axel 04/06/09
      50.   Should he do that, we are in greatest trouble ever 10:20  |  shlomo 04/06/09
      51.   the BIGGEST "mistake" israel that has EVER made! 10:21  |  eric 04/06/09
      52.   # 14 sandra 10:25  |  Axel 04/06/09
      53.   # 17 10:28  |  David 04/06/09
      54.   # 28 heather 10:31  |  Axel 04/06/09
      55.   Netanyahu has no choice 10:34  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/06/09
      56.   Aluf Benn gives an unsupported opinion and nothing more :-( 10:49  |  Eagerwatcher 04/06/09
      57.   ANALYSIS or WISHFUL THINKING 11:01  |  Zev 04/06/09
      58.   Ethnic cleansing is illegal 11:05  |  Beni 04/06/09
      59.   to Mark Lincoln: We wanted peace we got the wars. Analysis 11:06  |  a Jew 04/06/09
      60.   Johnboy the australian colonizer and Obama`s dreamss 11:15  |  arik 04/06/09
      61.   IN return for that the Pals/Persians will do what? 11:15  |  PETER SM 04/06/09
      62.   Mossad:Don`t share your good intelligence with Obama.Let him rot. 11:25  |  Elie 04/06/09
      63.   eric #51... nothing to add to your excellent summing-up... 11:53  |  Esther 04/06/09
      64.   A problem that Bibi hoped was merely chronic ... 12:02  |  Esther 04/06/09
      65.   No settlements at all, all of them are illegal !!! 12:14  |  E.T. 04/06/09
      66.   Photo! Obama`s piercing gaze, Bibi`s shifty eyes, Lincoln waching 12:30  |  Ivar 04/06/09
      67.   To Eric #51 12:31  |  Sara 04/06/09
      68.   eric #51... you are the only poster to be forgiven... 13:05  |  Esther 04/06/09
      69.   I agree: Eric (51) spot on 13:31  |  Wmr 04/06/09
      70.   "agree to some sort of concessions on settlements" 13:39  |  David D 04/06/09
      71.   There is no alternative 13:55  |  Stephen Connor 04/06/09
      72.   With Which Coalition 14:34  |  Moshe 04/06/09
      73.   How I spent my summer vacation... 15:35  |  Steve 04/06/09
      74.   I agree Ethnic Cleansing is illegal 15:48  |  Miggy 04/06/09
      75.   Better to be a light/a beacon than a torch,2nd try 15:56  |  a wandering Jew 04/06/09
      76.   Netanyahu has no choice 16:11  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/06/09
      77.   #.61.Peter SM. No deal with Iran. For sure. 16:15  |  Stephen. 04/06/09
      78.   MIGGY Straight from the Arab leaders 16:26  |  PETER SM 04/06/09
      79.   Time to go 17:32  |  john 04/06/09
      80.   Reply to Michael from Ca. 18:18  |  Rabbi Yakov Lazaros 04/06/09
      81.   #3 Whg Really after 67 Israel; made many sussesions 18:26  |  Big Sur 04/06/09
      82.   Rabbi Lazaros is dreaming 18:27  |  Joe 04/06/09
      83.   Dear Miggy you bought the line 18:33  |  Big Sur 04/06/09
      84.   #51 eric - finally a good one! I agree. 18:35  |  S 04/06/09
      85.   Obama & the making of the 4th religion ! 18:36  |  Akram Zekaria 04/06/09
      86.   OBAMA CAN SEE FAR BEYOND WHAT BIBI COULD SEE 18:48  |  indrajaya 04/06/09
      87.   #78 PETER SM`s cheap propaganda to Miggy 18:59  |  Roo 04/06/09
      88.   Big Sur #83 `spiritually given` means what exacty? 19:56  |  Roo 04/06/09
      89.   #88 Roo 20:38  |  Big Sur 04/06/09
      90.   Not gone yet? 20:47  |  American 04/06/09
      91.   No one is saying you can`t 20:59  |  American 04/06/09
      92.   Dear Haaretz post roo ad do not post my replies 21:03  |  Big Sur 04/06/09
      93.   Haaretz ty I did senda part two to post 89 21:17  |  Big Sur 04/06/09
      94.   #89 The year is 1935, the place is Palestine 21:37  |  Ardi 04/06/09
      95.   Obama will be ignored 04:12  |  Andy 05/06/09
      96.   # 55 Chris Linthwaite 04:14  |  Andy 05/06/09
      97.   eric 14:08  |  American in NY 05/06/09
      98.   Time clock comply 05:46  |  Dan 06/06/09
      99.   Obama`s arbitrary setting of the goalposts 06:46  |  Ronnbo 08/06/09
      100.   sanctions 18:55  |  aris spivack 08/06/09
      101.   Roo full of crap 21:47  |  An American 08/06/09
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