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Last update - 10:13 31/07/2009
ANALYSIS / U.S. losing faith in usefulness of Tehran dialogue
By Amos Harel
Tags: israel news, obama, iran 

The talks held in Israel this week by senior Obama administration officials, which focused to a large extent on blocking Iran's nuclear program, indicate that the Americans - influenced by the Iranian regime's conduct toward the post-election unrest that began in early June - are for the first time showing more understanding for Israel's view of events. The United States is more skeptical than before about the likelihood that a diplomatic dialogue, or even harsh sanctions should that option fail, will dissuade the Iranians from their goal.

On the other hand, it seems that American opposition to an Israeli attack on Iran still stands. Yet the administration's talk of a "defensive umbrella" over Israel if Iran does acquire the bomb does not satisfy Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

The talks on the matter opened just after a joint American-Israeli exercise at Nevada's Nellis Air Force Base. It was dubbed Red Flag, and included training on the in-flight refueling of Israeli jets by American airplanes.
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The Iranian issue dominated this week's visits by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and National Security Adviser James Jones. At first, the Americans had hoped to open a dialogue with Iran in September and conduct a review of this policy toward the end of the year. However, Iran has so far refused to even agree on beginning a dialogue, which might accelerate the schedule: The reassessment will be conducted earlier than planned, and thus sanctions might also be able to commence sooner. The U.S. is well aware that Iran is progressing, and that by mid-2010, it may pass another critical milestone, that of being able to detonate a nuclear device for the first time.

The backdrop to the talks is the acute internal crisis in Iran. U.S. President Barack Obama hesitated for weeks before uttering his first condemnation of the violent suppression of the post-election protests. The Iranians reacted with wild rants against the American president. As noted this week by Michael Singh, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, America's message on this matter is still unfocused and confused. A senior American official comments on the Iranian nuclear threat and a possible preemptive Israeli strike almost every week, but all those statements provide no clear line on either Israel or Iran.

Though it seems the red light on an Israeli attack still stands, the recurrent warnings by Israel's prime and defense ministers about all options being on the table actually serve American interests: They allow Obama to wave the Israeli stick at the Iranians as part of his effort to get the Iranians to agree to a dialogue, and possibly even to concessions.

Israeli officials believe the humiliations that the Obama administration has sustained from North Korea are influencing its approach to Iran. If Tehran follows Pyongyang in challenging the U.S. by openly detonating a nuclear device next year, the American reaction could be a lot harsher.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke last week about an American "defensive umbrella" for Israel and the Gulf states, but some commentators interpreted her statement as meaning that the U.S. had become reconciled to an Iranian nuclear bomb - the opposite of what she probably meant. In talks between Israelis and Americans, other options have also come up, such as an American nuclear submarine keeping its missiles permanently trained on Iran if it declares it is heading for the bomb.

Meanwhile, with no direct connection to the American-Israeli talks, the American Air Force published a feature about the joint Nevada exercise on its web site. It reported the participation of a squadron of F-16i ("Storm") jets, the new model that will bear the brunt of long-range target attacks should the need arise. Red Flag is a routine exercise that the U.S. conducts with other friendly air forces as well, simulating joint fights against a common enemy.

Does this exercise portend the future? Not necessarily. John Bolton, the hawkish former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, wrote this week that Secretary Gates' mission was to convince Israel not to attack Iran, but that Israel will have to make up its own mind very soon. Bolton said he would not be surprised if Israel attacks Iran before the end of the year. It is an enormous burden on Israel, he wrote, but "absent Israeli action, prepare for a nuclear Iran."

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      1.   obama is a rookie 03:24  |  david 31/07/09
      2.   Re-Inventing the Wheel 03:42  |  MIKE 31/07/09
      3.   Not about mutually assured destruction but nukes for terrorists 03:44  |  A Nice Fellow 31/07/09
      4.   Not comfortable either way 03:56  |  American 31/07/09
      5.   Clueless Obamite Wordocracy 04:15  |  Fortuna Benmayor 31/07/09
      6.   A Nice Fellow, #3- The "Kill Iran Anyway" Doctrine will work 05:25  |  dyinglikeflies 31/07/09
      7.   Well, Bolton gets it right... 05:25  |  Johnboy 31/07/09
      8.   Mature, self confident people (nations) 05:54  |  no_nukes 31/07/09
      9.   Give Israelis the Best bombs 06:04  |  Chappaqua neighbor 31/07/09
      10.   W/out its nuclear power... 08:04  |  sandra chitayat 31/07/09
      11.   a wonderful post yours #5 Fortuna Benmayor! 08:16  |  S 31/07/09
      12.   So in other words American, you have no idea? 08:26  |  Peter Williams 31/07/09
      13.   A Nice Fellow #3... don`t agree 08:32  |  Peter Williams 31/07/09
      14.   #5 And what would be your alternative, Fortuna? 09:30  |  Johnboy 31/07/09
      15.   #12 The crux of the issue, Peter WIlliams 09:41  |  Johnboy 31/07/09
      16.   Johnboy: Boy, become an adult. If Hitler & Mussolini had a nuke, 10:00  |  Vittorio 31/07/09
      17.   Johnboy`s plan B 10:07  |  arik 31/07/09
      18.   JB: Australia dropping nukes as fast as Israel! 10:07  |  Morris Valentine 31/07/09
      19.   "they allow Obama to wave the Israeli stick at Obama" 10:09  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 31/07/09
      20.   To Fortuna 10:12  |  Morris Valentine 31/07/09
      21.   M.A.D 10:13  |  indian cheif 31/07/09
      22.   #15 johnboy and the lessons of history, he hasnt learned them 10:31  |  v hardman 31/07/09
      23.   #5, Fortuna Benmayor, yes 10:36  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 31/07/09
      24.   david... Your 5 yr old son graduated from Law School? WOW! 11:24  |  CJ 31/07/09
      25.   #19, correction, it should read "wave the stick to Iran" 11:30  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 31/07/09
      26.   Using Israel a a threat? 11:44  |  Natallie Durson 31/07/09
      27.   US Foreign Policy and Military Optons. 12:26  |  Stephen. 31/07/09
      28.   Morris Valentine aka Flip Flop #18/#20 13:14  |  Roo 31/07/09
      29.   MAD 13:15  |  Chaim Lehman 31/07/09
      30.   v hardman `22` on `lessons` 13:19  |  moloch 31/07/09
      31.   MAD doesn`t work with Islamists. Israel must strike! 13:19  |  Paul 31/07/09
      32.   Roo #28 about Flip-Flopping being a quality... 13:50  |  S 31/07/09
      33.   America and the world do not feel threatened by Iran 14:14  |  Natallie Durson 31/07/09
      34.   Prognostication is still just a guess. 14:20  |  petra 31/07/09
      35.   #28 Roo...a change of heart and mind 15:11  |  Lynn 31/07/09
      36.   America is not confused 15:14  |  Lynn 31/07/09
      37.   Natallie Durson.. ??? 15:15  |  CJ 31/07/09
      38.   MIKE ??? "For religious reasons" ?? NO, they have a right to dev 15:21  |  CJ 31/07/09
      39.   26 * NATALIE DURSON 15:23  |  mike 31/07/09
      40.   A Nice Fellow should know nukies have a signature 15:27  |  CJ 31/07/09
      41.   #18 Where did I say that Israel would drop a NUKE, Morris? 15:37  |  Johnboy 31/07/09
      42.   To #32 DT 16:03  |  Peter 31/07/09
      43.   To #32 DT 16:04  |  Peter 31/07/09
      44.   To #32 DT 16:04  |  Peter 31/07/09
      45.   johnboy australia 16:11  |  nb 31/07/09
      46.   nuclear proliferation 16:49  |  John 31/07/09
      47.   Threat to the Arab world 17:04  |  John 31/07/09
      48.   No evidence of Iranian nuclear device 17:19  |  Butros Dahu 31/07/09
      49.   Obama - slow learner 17:39  |  Morris Valentine 31/07/09
      50.   just wait 17:40  |  jochai Rubinstein 31/07/09
      51.   JB, your language, please 17:44  |  Morris Valentine 31/07/09
      52.   Fortuna Cookie Benmayor # 5 whining self pity and victimhood 18:14  |  American in NY 31/07/09
      53.   Johnboy "pointing that out" 18:47  |  Fish 31/07/09
      54.   Diplomacy 18:49  |  Viewer 31/07/09
      55.   Israel not Obama`s priority - economy taking all hands 18:52  |  Kelly Brians 31/07/09
      56.   Morris Valentine (flip flop) #34 18:54  |  Roo 31/07/09
      57.   Roo #28 - Flip-Flopping is quality, class, not deffect. 19:06  |  S 31/07/09
      58.   Roo (#39): Complete flop 19:20  |  Morris Valentine 31/07/09
      59.   A nuclear Iran- so what 19:22  |  Arnold 31/07/09
      60.   To Johnboy # 14 19:35  |  Fortuna Benmayor 31/07/09
      61.   For Morris Valentine # 20 19:37  |  Fortuna Benmayor 31/07/09
      62.   For Cipora # 23 19:39  |  Fortuna Benmayor 31/07/09
      63.   #42..Arnold 19:54  |  Malone 31/07/09
      64.   US backing to the tracks, squeezing Iran´s capability is smart 19:57  |  JP 31/07/09
      65.   Arnold #42 doesn`t get it 20:11  |  Real realist 31/07/09
      66.   Persia turn out the rogue tribe from old testment 20:12  |  JP 31/07/09
      67.   Most rational and well informed people would agree with #8 20:23  |  john 31/07/09
      68.   What a joke Nobama and Gates are. 20:40  |  4:20 31/07/09
      69.   THIRD TRY - US POLICY Not Understood 21:11  |  Mark of Lewiston 31/07/09
      70.   #59, Mark of Lewiston 22:16  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 31/07/09
      71.   My compliments to Morris 22:18  |  Jackie 31/07/09
      72.   An unfortunate analogy, Arnold 22:23  |  Jackie 31/07/09
      73.   Only one Answer to solving Irans Nukes 22:34  |  Kipperraes 31/07/09
      74.   #42 American in NY....If Israel is so oppressive 22:40  |  Lynn 31/07/09
      75.   S, #46 sounds like a proposal ... 22:54  |  Roo 31/07/09
      76.   Bibi`s adm humiliates Obama more than N Korea 22:56  |  KGM 31/07/09
      77.   Admittedly 00:03  |  christoph 01/08/09
      78.   60 Cipora Julianna Kohn - You Don`t Get it Either 00:37  |  Mark of Lewiston 01/08/09
      79.   #68 Mark of Lewiston, you are so right 02:07  |  Mark B. 01/08/09
      80.   #68, Mark, try your propaganda on someone else 02:20  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 01/08/09
      81.   To Jackie (#61), with thanks ... and a clarification 02:31  |  Morris Valentine 01/08/09
      82.   To M of L (#68): Coals to Newcastle 02:45  |  Morris Valentine 01/08/09
      83.   AMERICAN THINKING Iis hypocritical 03:38  |  VIPER 01/08/09
      84.   Mark of Lewiston # 78 03:39  |  American in NY 01/08/09
      85.   #18, MORRIS VALNETINE, on dropping bombs 03:47  |  VIPER 01/08/09
      86.   84 Preemption is Not Self-Defense 07:06  |  Mark of Lewiston 01/08/09
      87.   Jackie #72 an unfortunate post 11:06  |  Roo 01/08/09
      88.   Roo #75 - No proposal is in the offing. 11:42  |  S 01/08/09
      89.   Yes nice theory Johnboy #15 13:46  |  Peter Williams 01/08/09
      90.   Morris Valentine, #82, fossile energy vs. nuclear power 13:49  |  christoph 01/08/09
      91.   #16 Ho-hum, vittorio 13:57  |  Johnboy 01/08/09
      92.   #22 Says Victor Paul..... 14:02  |  Johnboy 01/08/09
      93.   #45 Is that so, nb? 14:19  |  Johnboy 01/08/09
      94.   Arabs versus Ajamies, Persians Iranians ect. 17:11  |  Ran 01/08/09
      95.   #86 Mark is 100 % right, your post our two 17:50  |  Ardi 01/08/09
      96.   efforts towards dialogue fine , with the complete understanding 20:13  |  jj 01/08/09
      97.   Johnboy , your response "ho-hum" seriously man 20:16  |  jj 01/08/09
      98.   To Christoph (#90) 21:15  |  Morris Valentine 01/08/09
      99.   #89 Several complete nutters did, Peter Williams 03:01  |  Johnboy 02/08/09
      100.   American in NY # 52 and her/his emotional rants. 04:56  |  Fortuna Benmayor 02/08/09
      101.   To JB (#99): Nutters or not, here they come 04:36  |  Morris Valentine 03/08/09
      102.   The Real Goal? Stealing River Litani 15:19  |  Lese Majeste 03/08/09
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