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Last update - 10:39 28/11/2006
The Cease-Fire / A tunnel at the end of the light
By Ze'ev Schiff

Hamas's strategy worked. In return for symbolic concessions to Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas - and due mostly to its employment of force against Israel and the Israel Defense Forces' failure to put an end to the launching of Qassam rockets - Hamas is reaping a major achievement. And anyone who is wondering whether the cease-fire will enable Hamas to become stronger should remember that following the group's electoral victory, Israel decided that it would not allow Hamas to consolidate its power unless it met a number of conditions. These conditions have not been met.

The positive aspect of the cease-fire, for both sides, is the fact that Abbas, who seeks to resume diplomatic negotiations, succeeded in arranging it. However, Abbas is also trying to remove the economic boycott of the Gaza Strip and gain international recognition for a Palestinian government in which Hamas will be a leading partner. This can be viewed as a victory for Abbas, but it is clearly also a victory for Hamas.

Hamas's concessions will be symbolic: replacing the prime minister, and appointing a foreign minister affiliated with the organization, but who has a moderate worldview. Hamas showed no flexibility over the conditions presented to it by the international community (recognizing Israel, relinquishing violence and accepting previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements). Abbas will conduct the negotiations with Israel, and Hamas will run the PA. Its control will be looser, assuming that it gives up control of the Interior Ministry and the security services. Nonetheless, if various countries now rush to recognize Hamas, its victory will be complete - and Israel's failure will be great.

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What is particularly worrying is that Hamas succeeded in securing calm in order to better entrench itself. This success was achieved through violence that Israel did not ma nage to prevent - the abduction of Corporal Gilad Shalit and the intensification of Qassam rocket attacks against Sderot. Israel did not stop the rocket launches, and the public pressure on Ehud Olmert's government grew.

Calm is good for both sides, Israelis and Palestinians, but it reduces the pressure on Hamas, which was in a difficult situation, at a critical juncture. The fact that Khaled Meshal, who heads Hamas's political bureau, agreed to the deal, and that Tehran and Damascus have been silent about it, suggests that they view it as a Hamas success.

Abbas appreciates the dangers, and has brought forces into northern Gaza to prevent the launching of rockets. The sporadic rocket fire that still continues is being carried out by small Palestinian factions with rockets that they received in the past from Hamas weapons manufactories and the Fatah-linked Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades. If Abbas manages to end the rocket attacks, this will be an achievement for him. A more difficult task is putting an end to the arms smuggling across the Gaza-Egypt border, and that depends on Egypt. But on this issue, Hamas can also be calm: It has amassed sufficient quantities of weapons and ammunition that it can allow itself a break from the smuggling

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  1.   Big yes Mr. Schiff, HAMAS 08:16  |  Khalil Ishabib 28/11/06
  2.   Let History be the Judge 08:29  |  Natallie Durson 28/11/06
  3.   Yes, Natallie 08:56  |  Major R 28/11/06
  4.   Israel grow up 09:06  |  gus 28/11/06
  5.   Natallie, you are a good person 09:07  |  gus 28/11/06
  6.   Better late than never 09:45  |  Brigitte Meier 28/11/06
  7.   change in attitude 09:56  |  Rael Swiss 28/11/06
  8.   1# Thank you Khalil Ishabib 09:59  |  Nora 28/11/06
  9.   gus u draw the wrong conclusions 10:01  |  Viking 28/11/06
  10.   HISTORY WILL JUDGE 10:23  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/11/06
  11.   When the fighting resumes 10:36  |  Shalom Freedman 28/11/06
  12.   gus and #1 10:47  |  JewishHeart 28/11/06
  13.   The cycle of violence 11:17  |  JewishHeart 28/11/06
  14.   We speak their language, too 11:25  |  Major R 28/11/06
  15.   WHAT IT PROVES ARE INCOMPETENTI SRAELS POLTICIANS AND MILITARY 11:37  |  paul harris 28/11/06
  16.   Hamas = Fatah = Jihad = etc = Amalek 11:42  |  Uzi 28/11/06
  17.   Ceasefire is nonsense - the enemy continues to fire kassams! 12:08  |  Rina 28/11/06
  18.   Losers all 12:27  |  sh 28/11/06
  19.   No light just blinding explosions of the Qassems 12:41  |  PETER SM 28/11/06
  20.   HAMAS` PRAGMATISM AND RALISM 12:57  |  Messaoud 28/11/06
  21.   ALBERT EINSTEIN`S DEFINITION OF INSANITY ?? 13:00  |  Bill. 28/11/06
  22.   haaretz 14:02  |  Dr. Allan 28/11/06
  23.   Hams victory 14:28  |  Abu zouzou 28/11/06
  24.   Einstein`s definition of insanity (re #21) 14:34  |  albert 28/11/06
  25.   Now compared to six months ago 15:46  |  Tosefta 28/11/06
  26.   Olmert responsible for triumph of terror 15:48  |  Jonathan S 28/11/06
  27.   Israel`s flawed analysis 15:48  |  Ibrahim 28/11/06
  28.   For Dr Allan # 22 16:00  |  Clickfool 28/11/06
  29.   # 10 History? What`s That? 16:01  |  Tony Anthony 28/11/06
  30.   Hamas, given a gift by Olmert 16:26  |  Mark Lincoln 28/11/06
  31.   Hamas strategy By Schiff --1000 buildings destroyed in Gaza 16:28  |  Sal 28/11/06
  32.   Khalil Ishabib#1... THIS IS NOT AN ARAB NAME! 16:31  |  Messaoud 28/11/06
  33.   #2 Hitler was also elected by German people and in the end led .. 17:09  |  Haham from Bat Yam 28/11/06
  34.   Tosefta - Question 17:09  |  ODP 28/11/06
  35.   The peace question (ODP 34) 17:28  |  Tosefta 28/11/06
  36.   Olmert`s delusional negotiations offer 17:43  |  Tosefta 28/11/06
  37.   Messaoud #32 to Khalil Ishabib#1 18:08  |  Israel Supporter 28/11/06
  38.   3 Conditions + 2 18:09  |  Ishka Bibble 28/11/06
  39.   Mesias Schiff Israel`s failure will be great. 18:18  |  dr danielito 28/11/06
  40.   Tosefta - Let me try again 18:27  |  ODP 28/11/06
  41.   A well thought out article 18:28  |  Bimmer 28/11/06
  42.   The question (ODP 40) 18:59  |  Tosefta 28/11/06
  43.   NOTHING WE SAY MATTERS 19:01  |  TOBIA 28/11/06
  44.   Truce proves Hamas strategy worked 19:03  |  tbora 28/11/06
  45.   to khalil ishabib 19:41  |  Bernard 28/11/06
  46.   To Ibrahim of Mi 20:00  |  Bernard 28/11/06
  47.   #3 In Fact, they did wipe all nation off the map 20:01  |  Sahareef 28/11/06
  48.   #3 "Eradicate the Pals"; you are mad!!! 20:13  |  ballistic 28/11/06
  49.   #10 HISTORY!!! 20:21  |  ballistic 28/11/06
  50.   #45 Nonnegotiable??? 20:31  |  ballistic 28/11/06
  51.   # 32 Hey, Massaoud! 21:20  |  Jim 28/11/06
  52.   # 49 ballistic: History will show... 22:32  |  Jim 28/11/06
  53.   #49, ballistic 22:58  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/11/06
  54.   #48 ballistic writes from stolen land in the USA 23:02  |  paul harris 28/11/06
  55.   BALLISTIC 2 AND JIMMY CARTER THE WORST PRESIDENT EVER 23:05  |  paul harris 28/11/06
  56.   Re to #11 We need leaders... 23:06  |  Jim 28/11/06
  57.   ballistic 3 ISRAEL IS A LEGALLY CONSTITUTED STATE 23:08  |  paul harris 28/11/06
  58.   Cease and Fire 23:21  |  ATLAS 28/11/06
  59.   # 12 Is that what they want? 23:43  |  Jim 28/11/06
  60.   Ballistic #48,49,50 holds typical mis-informed opinion 00:13  |  Dovvod 29/11/06
  61.   Ballistic #48,49,50 holds typical mis-informed opinion 00:20  |  dovvod 29/11/06
  62.   Ballistic #48,49,50 holds typical mis-informed opinion 00:30  |  dovvod 29/11/06
  63.   # 13 00:33  |  Jim 29/11/06
  64.   Add Sahareed #47 to mis-informed 00:41  |  dovvod 29/11/06
  65.   #53 paul harris draws his insipration from 200 years ago 00:48  |  Johnboy 29/11/06
  66.   #56 paul harris, really, you need to read more. 00:59  |  Johnboy 29/11/06
  67.   Ballistic #48,49,50 holds typical mis-informed opinion 01:03  |  dovvod 29/11/06
  68.   # 57 Cease and Fire 01:09  |  Jim 29/11/06
  69.   Hamas "victory"? Are you serious? 01:18  |  Pssd Off American 29/11/06
  70.   Re: #21 & #24 01:22  |  jean bourgeot 29/11/06
  71.   Ballistic #48,49,50 holds typical mis-informed opinion 01:25  |  dovvod 29/11/06
  72.   #53 Response 02:43  |  ballistic22003 29/11/06
  73.   #56 Ignorant idiot 02:47  |  ballistic 29/11/06
  74.   #54 Jimmy Carter the worst ever President? 03:36  |  Johnboy 29/11/06
  75.   #23 / Self-Serving Fundamentalists 03:56  |  BP POL 29/11/06
  76.   to 2 : Hamas is not like USA or Israel 04:34  |  Nicolas 29/11/06
  77.   To Cipora Julianna Kohn 07:50  |  Otto Rand 29/11/06
  78.   Shalom Freedman #11 When fighting resumes 07:57  |  Otto Rand 29/11/06
  79.   #77 Otto Rand 08:59  |  Hastaroth 29/11/06
  80.   What Meshal Already Said..... 09:29  |  Tim 29/11/06
  81.   #67 actions speak louder than words JOHNBOY 09:52  |  paul harris 29/11/06
  82.   #81 Paul Harris keeps shouting 13:21  |  Johnboy 29/11/06
  83.   History had judged 15:13  |  William Dundonald 29/11/06
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