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Walking a nuclear tightrope
By Yossi Melman
Tags: nuclear, Iran, Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week in Tehran that he supports Iran's nuclear program. He added that he is interested in a strong Iran and signed an arms deal to provide jet engines for Iran's state-of-the-art combat plane. But Putin also refused to commit himself to a date when Russia will supply enriched uranium for the nuclear-powered electricity plant it is building in Iran's port city of Bushehr. Confusing? Definitely.

This confusion is exactly what allows Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's associates, who are experts at spin, to disseminate the claim - as they did over the weekend - that it was the prime minister who convinced Putin not to send Iran the first delivery of enriched uranium the reactor needs to be started. Even Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman (and we can wonder why he was not invited to join the trip) hinted that Israel was involved in the matter. That is utter nonsense, of course.

Russia under Putin does not change its views so quickly. Certainly not because of Israel. Russia has a clear and consistent foreign policy. It was consolidated over the past four years in light of the sharp rise in energy prices, which turned Russia into a rich country, and thanks to Putin's leadership, which seeks to challenge the United States and restore Russia's former glory.
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Putin is not trying to restore relations with the U.S. and the West to the days of the Cold War, but neither is he willing to waive Russia's wishes and interests in favor of the West's. The complexity characterizing Putin's foreign policy is causing the messages emerging from Moscow on Iran to sound ambiguous and confusing. Russia does not want its Shi'ite Muslim neighbor to have nuclear weapons, but it also sees Iran as an important market for the sale of arms and nuclear power plants for producing electricity. As far as Russia is concerned, Iran has been a target of diplomatic influence throughout history.

Above all, Russia is opposed to solving the crisis of the Iranian nuclear program by military means. It believes the Iranian leaders can still be convinced to postpone, at least for a while, the realization of their right to enrich uranium by themselves on a low level for civilian needs. That means Putin will not agree, at least not publicly, neither by silence nor by a wink, to an American military attack against Iran, not to mention an Israeli one.

For several years the European Union countries, backed by the Bush administration, tried to formulate a "carrot-and-stick" policy toward Iran. They offered it benefits and diplomatic, economic and technological incentives, including nuclear ones, if it would agree to stop enriching uranium. This approach worked for a year and a half during the term of the previous president, Mohammed Khatami. But in 2005 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president and reshuffled the deck.

In his approach to Iran, Putin is actually improving on the European carrot-and-stick method. When it comes to Israeli and international demands, if there is a chance Iran will listen to anyone, it will listen to Moscow. Russia's message to Iran is: You have a right to enrich uranium for civilian needs, but you don't have to do it now. Russia supports you, but you are liable to lose our support if you are too stubborn.

For Russian diplomacy to be effective, it is accompanied by a double game and ambiguous statements. Russia joined the sanctions imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council, but for the time being opposes additional sanctions. All these steps were meant to preserve Russia's deterrent power against Iran. This is a policy of walking a tightrope, which is like riding a wild horse. Though there is a chance the rider will succeed in restraining the horse, he is also liable to lose the reins, and with them, control.
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  1.   Walking nuclear tightropes is not a solo act 10:42  |  Natallie Durson 22/10/07
  2.   THE QUESTION IS WHY NOT? 10:50  |  indrajaya 22/10/07
  3.   Melman walking on a tightrope 10:53  |  Jonathan S 22/10/07
  4.   Bush, Olmert, Putin, Iran, and Russia 11:05  |  Jim 22/10/07
  5.   Question for Natallie. 11:20  |  Tulip 22/10/07
  6.   let `em be 11:20  |  eric 22/10/07
  7.   Jim, I would like to hear your stance on the following 11:25  |  Tulip 22/10/07
  8.   #1 Natalie Durson 11:26  |  Jim 22/10/07
  9.   No `tightrope` at all 12:12  |  Mark Lincoln 22/10/07
  10.   This is Why Bush Said Nuclear Iran = WWIII 12:51  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 22/10/07
  11.   # 10, OVADIAH BEN ABRAHAM 13:02  |  indrajaya 22/10/07
  12.   #7 Tulip 13:07  |  Jim 22/10/07
  13.   For Ovadiah ben Avraham and others 13:31  |  Natallie Durson 22/10/07
  14.   Things you need to know before quoting Bush 13:46  |  Natallie Durson 22/10/07
  15.   we are back to the cold war games 14:10  |  victor hardman 22/10/07
  16.   Will they or won`t they 14:34  |  Chris Linthwaite 22/10/07
  17.   Wrong answers. Jim 14:57  |  Tulip 22/10/07
  18.   RUSSIA would live to regret an Islamist nuclear power next door 15:03  |  PETER S .M. 22/10/07
  19.   "Confusing? Definitely." 15:27  |  Daniel 22/10/07
  20.   To Mark Lincoln 15:32  |  Oetis 22/10/07
  21.   Courageous Writer. Thanks. 15:42  |  joebhed 22/10/07
  22.   Tulip let me clarify my own position,the zionists had no business 15:54  |  lakshmi 22/10/07
  23.   The carrots and Sticks Balance 15:56  |  joebhed 22/10/07
  24.   The Reason For Earthquakes In Los Angeles 16:00  |  Tony Anthony 22/10/07
  25.   No nuclear power wants a new nuclear country 17:01  |  Tosefta 22/10/07
  26.   Russian War Games 17:02  |  Shoshana Thomasson 22/10/07
  27.   Natallie Durson, "mission in life" 17:27  |  zionist hammer 22/10/07
  28.   #25 Tosefta 17:30  |  Chris Linthwaite 22/10/07
  29.   Ovadiah ben Avraham 17:38  |  zionist hammer 22/10/07
  30.   Jonathan S. Frankfurt Germany 17:55  |  Shoshana Thomasson 22/10/07
  31.   lakshmi,:" let me clarify my own position,..." 18:02  |  zionist hammer 22/10/07
  32.   31Zionist hammer,claims to ancient title,psychological 18:26  |  lakshmi 22/10/07
  33.   US lack of vision (Chris Linthwaite #28) 18:28  |  Tosefta 22/10/07
  34.   For Shoshana in Amsterdam 18:58  |  Jonathan S 22/10/07
  35.   Tosefta: Missing Suitcase Bombs was Confirmed by Aexander Lebed 19:02  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 22/10/07
  36.   lakshmi,:" let me clarify my own position,..." 19:03  |  akiva (zionist) 22/10/07
  37.   Here`s Why Iran *Will* Launch a First Strike [1] 19:13  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 22/10/07
  38.   "in accordance with the agreed timetable." 19:19  |  Roger Bannister 22/10/07
  39.   Here`s Why Iran *Will* Launch a First Strike [2] 19:20  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 22/10/07
  40.   Here`s Why Iran *Will* Launch a First Strike [3] 19:24  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 22/10/07
  41.   Suitcases (Ovadiah ben Avraham #35) 19:27  |  Tosefta 22/10/07
  42.   Here`s Why Iran *Will* Launch a First Strike [4] 19:44  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 22/10/07
  43.   36Akiva(zionist) I am not supporting `islamic` claims,I am 19:47  |  lakshmi 22/10/07
  44.   36Akiva(zionist)contd. . Beit Hanoun used to be the principal 19:50  |  lakshmi 22/10/07
  45.   #13 Natalie Durson - No room for comparison 19:54  |  Yonatan 22/10/07
  46.   Lakshmi and facts 20:24  |  Tulip 22/10/07
  47.   #17 Tulip 20:26  |  Jim 22/10/07
  48.   Jim, it was yes or no, no but.. 20:37  |  Tulip 22/10/07
  49.   #44 Lakshmi, Re Zionism Bad Conscience 20:43  |  Dutch 22/10/07
  50.   To Lakshmi 21:09  |  Shoshana Thomasson 22/10/07
  51.   #18 Peter S. M. 21:11  |  Jim 22/10/07
  52.   To Dutch 21:31  |  Shoshana Thomasson 22/10/07
  53.   Lakshmi, your revisionist history may be comforting 21:51  |  akiva (zionist) 22/10/07
  54.   #48 Tulip 22:14  |  Jim 22/10/07
  55.   49Dutch,greetings,thanks for link,re:Beit Hanoun simply go to 22:17  |  lakshmi 22/10/07
  56.   Putin appears as supporting Iran, but not crucial. 22:23  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/10/07
  57.   #48 Tulip 22:30  |  Jim 22/10/07
  58.   46Tulip,I rest my case,you are not au courrant with all the 22:30  |  lakshmi 22/10/07
  59.   Putin and his business gang 22:49  |  Marco De Agostino 22/10/07
  60.   53Akiva(zionist)you are welcome to bury your head in the ME sand! 22:55  |  lakshmi 22/10/07
  61.   #5, Israel belongs to the nation of Israel , forever 22:56  |  Elinor from Iran 22/10/07
  62.   #42 Ovadiah ben Avraham 22:58  |  Jim 22/10/07
  63.   To Lakshmi 23:10  |  Shoshana Thomasson 22/10/07
  64.   Ahmadi being breastfed by putin 23:13  |  Elinor 22/10/07
  65.   The real threat is form ?? 23:25  |  Neil 22/10/07
  66.   Lakshmi (#58) What Greater Israel are you talking about 23:33  |  Gil 22/10/07
  67.   Good post Roger 23:34  |  Daniel 22/10/07
  68.   Lakshmi (#58) What Greater Israel are you talking about 23:34  |  Gil 22/10/07
  69.   My thoghts about Iran 23:34  |  Russian res. officer 22/10/07
  70.   Lakshmi (#58) What Greater Israel are you talking about 23:40  |  Gil 22/10/07
  71.   to Gil 23:55  |  Russian res. officer 22/10/07
  72.   #66 advice from russia on how to make friends and survive! 23:58  |  victor hardman 22/10/07
  73.   to hardman 00:13  |  Russian res. officer 23/10/07
  74.   #72 Hard head way past his bedtime 00:27  |  Labhras 23/10/07
  75.   63shoshana thomasson,the ball back in your court,why is it that 01:13  |  lakshmi 23/10/07
  76.   Gil,the greater israel was the dream of the early zionists and is 01:21  |  lakshmi 23/10/07
  77.   Sthruthious laksmi @#60 01:37  |  akiva (zionist) 23/10/07
  78.   #37 Ovadiah - Ahmedinijad gone before nukes are ever built 02:18  |  Pablo B 23/10/07
  79.   Hypocrisy 03:11  |  Glen 23/10/07
  80.   Russian Res. Officer 03:33  |  Rivka 23/10/07
  81.