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Olmert: Nuke report on Iran shows need for tighter Iran sanctions
By Aluf Benn, Shmuel Rosner and Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondents, Haaretz Service and News Agencies
Tags: George W. Bush 

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Tuesday that a new U.S. intelligence report finding that Tehran halted its development of a nuclear weapons demonstrates the need for tighter international sanctions in order to ensure the Islamic republic can never acquire nuclear weapons.

"We discussed this report with leaders of the [U.S.] administration," Olmert told reporters. "It is vital to pursue efforts to prevent Iran from developing a capability like this and we will continue doing so along with our friends the United States."

The National Intelligence Estimate, released Monday in Washington, found that Tehran froze its nuclear weapons program in 2003, and that it has remained on hold - despite Iran's continued uranium enrichment.
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Responding to the report, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Tuesday that Iran had probably restarted its nuclear weapons program. "It seems Iran in 2003 halted for a certain period of time its military nuclear program but as far as we know it has probably since revived it," Barak told Army Radio.

"We are talking about a specific track connected with their weapons building program, to which the American [intelligence] connection, and maybe that of others, was severed," he said.

Barak said such reports were "made in an environment of high uncertainty."

Asked if the new U.S. assessment reduced chances that the U.S. will launch a military strike on Iran, Barak said that was possible.

However, he said, "We cannot allow ourselves to rest just because of an intelligence report from the other side of the earth, even if it is from our greatest friend."

Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said he "doesn't buy" the National Intelligence Estimate findings that Iran had stopped making a nuclear weapon. He said Israel should "not take any risks" and keep up its campaign against Tehran.

For its part, Iran said Tuesday it welcomed the intelligence report. "It's natural that we welcome it when those countries that in the past have questions and ambiguities about this case... now amend their views realistically," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told state radio.

J'lem sources: U.S. attack on Iran in 2008 increasingly unlikely

Government sources in Jerusalem told Haaretz Monday night that the Bush administration appears to have lost its sense of urgency regarding Iran's nuclear program, making a military strike in 2008 increasingly unlikely.

The same sources said that the United States is unlikely to strike Iran in 2008, and will make do with more severe sanctions against Tehran.

The report, which discounted the likelihood that Iran is on a path to develop nuclear weapons soon, did not catch the Israeli leadership by surprise. During their visit to Washington last week, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak were briefed on the report.

The document, which is a consensus paper containing the views of the 16 intelligence agencies in the American intelligence apparatus, concludes that Iran's actions are rational, motivated by "cost-benefit" and not driven by a mad dash to produce the bomb irrespective of all consequences.

According to the report, Iran ceased developing military nuclear capabilities in 2003 because of international pressure and is focused on a civilian nuclear program.

The report contradicts earlier U.S. intelligence reports, Israeli assessments, and the conclusions of senior officials in the Bush administration.

The new assessment concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb.

According to the sources, the report suggests that Iran had developed a military nuclear program but was unnerved by the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and of Iraq in 2003.

Israel's intelligence assessment, which guides Israeli decision making, is that Iran could achieve a military nuclear capability as early as the end of 2009 or 2010.

Olmert had made it clear to the administration that Israel is basing its policy on this assessment, and reiterated this in Washington last week.

The difference in the American and Israeli assessments is derived not from different information but rather different approaches - Israel focuses on the worst case scenario, while the U.S. approach assumes that, once acquiring the necessary technology, Iran will still have difficulty implementing it in order to produce the bomb.

In the report, U.S. intelligence assessments do not relate to Tehran's possible "hidden" aims. However, in a similar report in 2005, U.S. intelligence assessed that Iran seeks to acquire a nuclear weapons capability and is working toward that end.

A little over five years ago, a deeply mistaken intelligence estimate concluded that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons programs and was planning to restart its nuclear program. The report led to congressional authorization for a military invasion of Iraq, but most of those conclusions turned out to be wrong.

The new estimate on Iran does say that its ultimate goal is to develop the capability to produce nuclear weapons, and it is likely that Iran will achieve that goal by the middle of the next decade.

Moreover, the new report does not imply that Iran's leadership would be easy to persuade to relinquish its ambitions to become a nuclear power.

Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, had reported last month that Iran was now operating 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, capable of producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.

Related articles:
  • Study: U.S., Israel should begin planning strike on Iran nuclear sites
  • Bush warns nuclear Iran could spur 'World War III'
  • MI: Iran will cross nuclear threshold by 2009
  • Chronology of Iran's nuclear program
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      1.   Israel just got PWNED!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!!!!!11 03:20  |  POP 04/12/07
      2.   US CANT DO NOTHING TO STOP PUTIN!!! 03:33  |  LOOSE BEFORE WAR!!! 04/12/07
      3.   The Neo-cons are history 03:48  |  Sam 04/12/07
      4.   The lost of urgency 03:53  |  Brod 04/12/07
      5.   AMERICA LIKE CHICKEN!!!!!! 04:08  |  loose before WAR!!!! 04/12/07
      6.   aisrael Must Base Its Actions Or Non - Actions 04:16  |  Eli 04/12/07
      7.   THE REAL SUPREME = ARABS RUSSIA & CHINA BACKED , HOW ABOUT JEW? 04:18  |  SHOW YOUR TEETH US!! 04/12/07
      8.   Poor Poor Israelis 04:33  |  dan 04/12/07
      9.   No more silly wars 04:35  |  Red 04/12/07
      10.   Eli # 6 Your bravery would be best utilized elsewhere 04:44  |  American in NY 04/12/07
      11.   #4 Brod 04:47  |  wibism 04/12/07
      12.   #7 04:49  |  wibism 04/12/07
      13.   Mohamedan Persians,your days are numbered 04:55  |  cristo 04/12/07
      14.   Bush`s mood dictates "Intelligence" assessments. 05:02  |  Fortuna Benmayor 04/12/07
      15.   G_D is your defense 05:20  |  DRS 04/12/07
      16.   The US has not lost sense of urgency on Iran 05:22  |  Conroy 04/12/07
      17.   Response to Brod 05:24  |  John 04/12/07
      18.   Haha.. Time for ALL the Israeli WarmongeRs to STFU!!!1!!!!!11 05:31  |  POP 04/12/07
      19.   I hope this is true! 05:43  |  Moises 04/12/07
      20.   American In NY # 10 - I Was Actually "Begged" To Come Here 06:20  |  Eli 04/12/07
      21.   Maybe Iran will fall for this article ... 06:26  |  Forward 04/12/07
      22.   re#4 Brod 06:29  |  Brad 04/12/07
      23.   Dr Rice & Her Soviet Policy in the Middle East. 06:35  |  Akram Zekaria 04/12/07
      24.   Why are the only people who support bombing Iran 06:43  |  Matt 04/12/07
      25.   AMERICA PUNISHES ISRAEL FOR ANNAPOLIS DECEPTION 06:59  |  Ron 04/12/07
      26.   Hence the cold shoulder in Maryland 07:05  |  Keren 04/12/07
      27.   America Is Doomed, Israel Must Act Alone 07:22  |  Efox 04/12/07
      28.   re: American in NY 07:31  |  Efox 04/12/07
      29.   For DRS # 15 07:36  |  Fortuna Benmayor 04/12/07
      30.   Eli #6 07:51  |  Maki 04/12/07
      31.   Eat Your Words, Chuckie Baby 07:57  |  DoubleClick 04/12/07
      32.   RightWingers+Religious Nuts are sad, good news for rest of humans 08:04  |  anti-racist 04/12/07
      33.   Fire this intel analyst that said this--- 08:47  |  Pablo B 04/12/07
      34.   A MILITARY REBELLION IN WASHINGTON 09:00  |  indrajaya 04/12/07
      35.   A MILITARY REBELLION IN WAHINGTON 09:00  |  indrajaya 04/12/07
      36.   Isreal does not deserve US Support 09:12  |  Walt 04/12/07
      37.   Congragulations to the American People for 09:14  |  Amir 04/12/07
      38.   What a bummer for Israel 09:14  |  Clickfool 04/12/07
      39.   So how do you think Israel will do this, Efox? 09:29  |  Clickfool 04/12/07
      40.   Does Iran have a nuclear weapons programme? 09:43  |  Clickfool 04/12/07
      41.   Israel Commits Suicide 09:45  |  Walt 04/12/07
      42.   Dear Americans and Israelis, make more love and less war...!!! 10:14  |  Swiss (Dino) 04/12/07
      43.   Barak: Israel believes Iran has probably restarted nuke program ( 10:17  |  JW 04/12/07
      44.   Clickfool #40 10:17  |  S 04/12/07
      45.   OK - so what shall we . . . 10:23  |  English Resident 04/12/07
      46.   Would Iran bomb places that it considers holy? 10:35  |  kenl 04/12/07
      47.   YOU ARE A SICK NATION...WE REALY TIRED OF YOU 10:43  |  Atilla Karagözoğlu 04/12/07
      48.   Desperate, pathetically obvious lying now from Barak 10:44  |  Clickfool 04/12/07
      49.   Happy Hanukkah!! 10:48  |  Craig 04/12/07
      50.   Barak fails to hide his dissapointment. 10:48  |  Hubal 04/12/07
      51.   to feel disgust 10:49  |  Atilla Karagözoğlu 04/12/07
      52.   CFOOL What a bummer for you.More sanctions against Iran 10:49  |  PETER S.M. 04/12/07
      53.   CFOOL What a bummer! Now you can`t rant about AIPAC ruling the US 10:54  |  PETER S.M. 04/12/07
      54.   To Cristo 13 10:59  |  Persian Kitty 04/12/07
      55.   Brod 11:01  |  Mr. T 04/12/07
      56.   LIKELY, PROBABLY..... MEANING, DON`T HAVE A CLUE 11:09  |  TrippleJump 04/12/07
      57.   NeoCons lies 11:09  |  Dav 04/12/07
      58.   YOU ARE JUST ABOUT LOSING YOUR LAST CASTLE 11:09  |  ATİLLA KARAGÖZOĞLU 04/12/07
      59.   "WALT" its all so simple why not just leave Iraq?Years ago? 11:13  |  PETER S .M. 04/12/07
      60.   DRS 11:13  |  Mr. T 04/12/07
      61.   DONT LIVE AS WOMEN...LIVE AS MAN, MAN LIKE MAN 11:16  |  Atilla Karagözoğlu 04/12/07
      62.   divergence between the CIA and Mossad on a ME matter 11:21  |  mehmet 04/12/07
      63.   Efox 11:21  |  Mr. T 04/12/07
      64.   According to 16 American Intelligence services 11:24  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/12/07
      65.   If Ehud Barak is saying something....... 11:31  |  Swiss (Dino) 04/12/07
      66.   CFOOL But YOU said Iran will definitely have the bomb 11:32  |  PETER S.M. 04/12/07
      67.   Watcha gonna do now, bad boys? 11:33  |  Maureen Ann 04/12/07
      68.   The American awakening 11:35  |  Atoo Landarv 04/12/07
      69.   In the 70`s MIT had Muslims studying Nuclear Engineering 11:42  |  George 04/12/07
      70.   Israel wants war at any price. Because they know: 11:43  |  Andreas 04/12/07
      71.   WALT,CFOOL. Why didn`t AIPAC"send"US troops to Lebanon instead of 11:47  |  PETER S.M. 04/12/07
      72.   Iran- Russia 11:56  |  Vital 04/12/07
      73.   Walt in Atlanta 12:03  |  Uzi 04/12/07
      74.   Barak is desperate 12:04  |  Atoo Landarv 04/12/07
      75.   For Peter SM # 53 12:10  |  Clickfool 04/12/07
      76.   Is Bush selling Israel to the Saudis? 12:14  |  Jonathan S 04/12/07
      77.   Mehmet, just a few examples of CIA failures 12:16  |  Uri 04/12/07
      78.   A SLAP ON BUSH`s FACE, he wants w