Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., January 10, 2008 Shvat 3, 5768 | | Israel Time: 11:43 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Advertising Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

U.S. President George W. Bush speaking upon arrival at Ben-Gurion International Airport on Wednesday. (Ch. 10) Last update - 15:25 09/01/2008 ANALYSIS: Bush can spur peace talks, but can't solve Gaza issue By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent Tags: Israel, Palestinians  All it took was for the engines of Air Force One to fire up to produce two major breakthroughs in talks between Israel and the Palestinians. The first was the announcement by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas that they were willing to start talks dealing with the conflict's core issues. The second was Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman's promise not to cause a coalition crisis by withdrawing from the government during Bush's visit. Both events illustrate Bush's limitations during his second term: He can push Olmert and Abbas to talk about an agreement "defining a Palestinian state," but he has to come to Jerusalem himself to keep Lieberman seated in the government. Still, Lieberman's threat to destabilize Olmert's coalition, like that of Shas Chairman Eli Yishai, limits Israel's maneuverability considerably. Instead of forming one committee on borders, another on the question of Jerusalem and a third to deal with the Palestinian refugees, Israel insisted that all three issues be placed under the authority of a special committee headed by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and her Palestinian counterpart, former PA prime minister Ahmed Qureia. This strategy will allow Olmert to tell Lieberman that the issue of dividing Jerusalem has not yet been raised. Bush's first visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority comes at a time when neither the security nor the political winds are blowing in his favor. The "spirit of Annapolis" is eroding fast, and the parties have plunged into a series of mutual recriminations and stonewalling. Encouraged by their success in embarrassing Israel over building in the settlements, the Palestinians have launched a new campaign complaining about Israel Defense Forces operations in the West Bank. The U.S. accepted the Palestinian claim that Israeli incursions into Nablus undermine PA forces in the city. Advertisement Gaza presents a much more complicated issue for Bush. The fighting there is escalating, and the U.S. has no real answer to Hamas's continued arms smuggling or the firing of Qassam rockets at Israel. Until a real solution is found to the rocket fire on the western Negev, Israel cannot withdraw from the West Bank, since this would bring Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Ben-Gurion International Airport into rocket range. If Bush wants progress in the West Bank, he had better focus on finding a solution for Gaza first. Olmert will talk to Bush about four key issues: moving the talks with the Palestinians forward, ensuring that Israel's security needs are met in any future West Bank settlement; the American intelligence assessment that Iran has abandoned its nuclear arms program; and a strategic analysis of Israel's security situation. But one should not expect any major concessions by the United States: No preliminary discussions were held before the visit, and Bush's itinerary makes any gestures to Israel difficult. At the conclusion of the Israeli leg of his tour, Bush is slated to visit Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. If he makes promises to Olmert in Jerusalem, he will have to make similar promises to Arab leaders. That is why Bush's current visit is aimed at creating a positive atmosphere and showing presidential involvement in the peace process. Israel will have to wait for Bush's next visit, scheduled to coincide with its 60th anniversary, to receive the president's "going-away present." Related articles: Bush set to arrive for landmark visit in Israel Rice says Bush will urge leaders to reach peace deal Bush, accessory after the facts Bookmark to del.icio.us   'Bush go home' Israeli Arab parties join leftist protests against the Bush visit. Peace overture Syria says it isn't seeking a military solution with Israel.   1.   what about the West Bank issue ... 09:42  |  Leona 09/01/08   2.   Leona is right - The West Bank can`t wait. 09:54  |  JK 09/01/08   3.   #1 wrong leona ther will be no peace whilst arabs live in israel 10:26  |  victor hardman 09/01/08   4.   1 and 2 10:37  |  Michael 09/01/08   5.   If Israel wants peace with Hamas, they need to talk to Hamas 11:28  |  Natallie Durson 09/01/08   6.   True, but does not end the killings of Palestinians 12:35  |  El-Birawi 09/01/08   7.   #1 & 2 - there can be no peace with Islam - full stop! 12:48  |  redmike 09/01/08   8.   The problem of Gaza is of Israels own making 13:28  |  Chris Linthwaite 09/01/08   9.   forgotten past 13:45  |  larry 09/01/08   10.   bush is wasting his time 14:09  |  alan 09/01/08   11.   there will be no peace while i am alive!!! 14:10  |  victor hardman 09/01/08   12.   Peace process? 14:52  |  Frank 09/01/08   13.   To #4 - Talk with Hamas 14:53  |  Frank 09/01/08   14.   #4 Michael 14:54  |  Boycott 09/01/08   15.   #11 my ghost writer is correct and while 14:55  |  v hardman 09/01/08   16.   # 6 YOU COULD MOVE DUMMY! 15:02  |  Petra 09/01/08   17.   # 3 Victor YOU SAID A MOUTHFUL OF TRUTH!!!! 15:05  |  Petra 09/01/08   18.   Durson # 5 What part of Hamas` charter you don`t get? 15:23  |  Fortuna Benmayor 09/01/08   19.   Bush Can`t Change Reality - Hamas Won The Election ! 15:45  |  Straight Talk 09/01/08   20.   #6 - seems like you know nothing about Jewish history 15:45  |  redmike 09/01/08   21.   Why is this not covered in Haaretz? 17:15  |  Benny Elon 09/01/08   22.   Jerusalem 17:34  |  Matt Houston 09/01/08   23.   Leona and crazy fanatics: 18:25  |  ahem 09/01/08   24.   YES HE CAN! 19:06  |  dav zee 09/01/08   25.   Fortuna on Hamas Charter - 1st try 18:36 UTC 20:37  |  BBSNews 09/01/08   26.   6 El Birawi,it`s called slow genocide,unlike the dramatic events 22:04  |  lakshmi 09/01/08   27.   24 - You are using Western logic 22:05  |  redmike 09/01/08   28.   #8 - Chris & Israel`s mistakes 22:41  |  yitz 09/01/08   29.   Gaza can be solved as well 22:52  |  Jan Elshout 09/01/08   30.   contradiction 22:57  |  ron 09/01/08   31.   #25bbs and making history ? NOT 23:14  |  victor hardman 09/01/08   32.   #8 Chris Linthwaite: why worry? 23:43  |  Alicia 09/01/08   33.   Let`s face Aluf Benn Bush helped create the situation in Gaza... 00:05  |  Dutch 10/01/08   34.   We Americans are tired of financing Apartheid 00:52  |  Isaiah 10/01/08   35.   OIL COUNTRIES DONT WANT PEACE 01:32  |  TOBIA 10/01/08   36.   get a grip 01:36  |  CML 10/01/08   37.   get a grip on the Hamas charter - 1st try 01:34 UTC 03:34  |  BBSNews 10/01/08   38.   #34 - who is this `we`? US support for Israel is at 5 year high! 11:33  |  redmike 10/01/08

Today Online Bush arrives in the West Bank to a red carpet welcome Responses: 72 Libya thwarts Security Council censure of Shlomi missile strike Responses: 24 Shavit: If they want a state, Palestinians must undergo ideology change Responses: 15 W. Bank Palestinians brace for visit by 'that criminal' Bush Responses: 22 Rosner's Domain What does "change" mean for Israel? How many states between the Mediterranean and the Euphrates? (WTR) New poll: Who is the candidate that will have better policies for Israel? Rosner's Guest: Israel at present is not a light unto the nations Rosner's Mailbox: Anti-Semites within Ron Paul's camp More Headlines 11:42 Bush: I believe we will reach peace deal in 2008 11:08 ANALYSIS: Bush visit gives Olmert a pre-Winograd respite 10:15 Palestinians in Ramallah brace for visit by 'that criminal' Bush 10:17 Poll: Labor voters want Barak to remain in gov't after Winograd 10:17 Inquiry into Holocaust survivor benefits lacks clear mandate 09:47 Libya thwarts Security Council censure of Shlomi missile strike 10:02 From Amsterdam to Tel Aviv: Israel's 2nd city promotes bicycling 04:02 Environment Ministry opposes plans to protect Herzliya archaeological site 09:00 Father, two children hurt in criminal car blast in Beit Semesh Previous Editions Select Day 09 jan 08 jan 07 jan 06 jan 04 jan 03 jan 02 jan 01 jan 31 dec 30 dec 28 dec 27 dec

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