Subscribe to Print Edition | Sun., February 10, 2008 Adar1 4, 5768 | | Israel Time: 23:45 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
  Back to Homepage
Rosner's Domain
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Advertising
Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File
Last update - 04:49 08/02/2008
ANALYSIS: Major IDF operation in Gaza back on the agenda
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Tags: Israel, IDF, Gaza, Hamas

The rocket barrages against communities inside Israel and the Israel Defense Forces operations in the Gaza Strip that have left at least 16 Palestinians dead over the past three days all point in one direction: Following many weeks of being kept on ice, the likelihood of a major military operation in the Gaza Strip is once more at the forefront.

In recent months it seemed that the major IDF operation (which had been discussed sporadically for about a year and a half) had been dropped from the agenda. There were a number of reasons for this.

F
Advertisement
irstly, the political leadership found it difficult to accept that the operational plans produced by the IDF were realistic. The concerns that a major ground operation would have limited gains against Hamas and would cost the IDF many casualties, in parallel with an inability to plan for a scenario that would restore relative calm in the Strip, raised many reservations in Jerusalem.

Playing a role in the background, meanwhile, was the paralysis that took hold of the political leadership as the release of the final Winograd Report loomed. So long as there was a question mark hanging over the Olmert government, there was a reluctance to make any decisions concerning an operation in the Strip.

However, the apparent change in recent weeks does not only stem from the fact that the prime minister has managed to survive the Winograd trial. It is mainly linked to developments along the border between the Strip and Egypt, which have added a new element of instability to the already complex situation. Egypt may have announced this week that it has resealed the Philadelphi Route at Rafah, but it is doubtful whether this is a hermetic closure.

The Hamas operation which brought down the wall greatly impressed the IDF. An officer who held a senior post in the past in Southern Command said Thursday that he had told his Palestinian Authority counterparts at the time, security officials loyal to Mahmoud Abbas, that the wall would stand for many years after the disengagement. His assessment, he admits, was mistaken. What Hamas managed to achieve is a fundamental change in the situation in the area.

Why would the breach in the wall expedite an Israeli operation? Because the absence of stability contributes to escalation and the loss of control. The action has bolstered the confidence of Hamas' military wing. This operational success may lead them to take more risks.

On Wednesday, the Hamas representative in Tehran threatened Israel with a wave of suicide bombings inside the country. To this must be added the situation in Rafah. While smuggling had previously been rampant, the absence of any border controls in recent weeks appears to have enabled Hamas to intensify its effort to bolster its arsenal. At the same time, terrorist organizations have managed to send a number of teams into Sinai, with the aim of carrying out attacks in Israel. Without a wall, Egypt's ability to seal the border against the terror cells is limited.

In light of these developments, it is once more possible to hear Defense Minister Ehud Barak talk about his desire to avoid a major operation, but at the same time that such a step may be inevitable. The current steps being taken - continuing the economic blockade, which has been broken by Hamas; limiting the amount of electricity being supplied; limited ground operations ¬ are all considered essential before a final decision on embarking on a massive operation.

What would a massive operation include? Israel faces three main challenges in the Strip, each of which is concentrated in a different geographic location: the Qassam attacks against Ashkelon and Sderot (northern Strip); the strengthening of the terrorist groups in Rafah ¬ (where the smuggling takes place); and the Hamas regime (Gaza City).

It is fair to assume that for the latter, the IDF will opt to deal with the regime from a distance - relying on an air operation. A ground operation would include a combination of sorts for dealing with the first two problems. If it turns out that Philadelphi Route remains entirely breached, this may be an incentive for a ground operation toward Rafah. However that introduces a separate dilemma: An operation close to the border with Egypt may lead to friction with Cairo.

In cabinet discussions, senior IDF officers have made it clear that they need time in such an operation. They stressed that there is no point in carrying out a major initiative if they are not allowed to carry out the necessary search and destroy missions and arrests in the areas the army will bring under its control, following the initial offensive. Another critical element will be the weather, which is likely to delay a major operation for at least a month.

Meanwhile, the combative attitude adopted by Cairo recently in its statements against Hamas is further exacerbating relations between the two sides. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit warned yesterday that Egypt would "break the legs" of Palestinians who try to enter Sinai ¬ a statement that sounded almost like a declaration of war.


Related articles:
  • IDF kills 8 Palestinians; Israel drops electricity supply to Gaza
  • Israel begins reducing electricity supply to Gaza
  • Gaza power plant shuts down due to fuel blockade
    • Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    All in the family
    Tel Aviv municipality moves to retain contract with Gaza City as 'twin city.'
    Pining for a leader
    A documentary examines Ariel Sharon's motive for the Gaza disengagement.
      1.   Major IDF operation 01:42  |  DRew 08/02/08
      2.   Is PM/DM/COS gonna do it again - playing games. 01:45  |  bat yam 08/02/08
      3.   Idiots! 02:20  |  Paulo 08/02/08
      4.   Start by napalming the funeral processions 02:37  |  akiva (zionist) 08/02/08
      5.   Falling into Hamas`s trap, just like when the border came down 02:59  |  Pablo B 08/02/08
      6.   Paulo, Idiot of Lisboa, Portugal 03:05  |  akiva (zionist) 08/02/08
      7.   TAKE OVER NOW!!! 03:32  |  watcher 08/02/08
      8.   the strategy 04:27  |  USA military expert 08/02/08
      9.   Poor little coloniser 04:50  |  Truth 08/02/08
      10.   Why Bother With F15s, Use Small Nukes 05:05  |  Dave Levy 08/02/08
      11.   #8 A military expert maps out the tactics... 05:06  |  Johnboy 08/02/08
      12.   #8 USA Military expert ? 05:07  |  Maureen Ann 08/02/08
      13.   The IDF Is Always Surprised - Don`t They Have Any Smart People ? 05:15  |  Tod zuckerman 08/02/08
      14.   #8, US Military Expert 05:21  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 08/02/08
      15.   IDF bringing down Israel 05:41  |  Frustrated in USA 08/02/08
      16.   Donald Rumsfeld Moved to Israel?? 05:54  |  Mark of Lewiston 08/02/08
      17.   POOR LITTLE COLONISER 06:14  |  JOSEPH 08/02/08
      18.   The IAF can get it done 06:21  |  Ron 08/02/08
      19.   #16, Mark of Lewiston 06:47  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 08/02/08
      20.   # 15 "frustrated in america" 06:56  |  dan 08/02/08
      21.   Cipora-Only worth doing if IDF is allowed 07:27  |  Stephen in New York 08/02/08
      22.   gaza operation 07:31  |  colin 08/02/08
      23.   A BIG PARTY WILL COME SOON, I CAN`T WAIT 08:09  |  Indrajaya 08/02/08
      24.   #15, Frustrated in USA...well said! 11:04  |  Silvienne 08/02/08
      25.   #10, Dave Levy... 11:08  |  Silvienne 08/02/08
      26.   16. dear m of lewiston. US invasion is in my 15:09  |  bozhidarevski bob 08/02/08
      27.   just nuke it. 18:10  |  frenz 08/02/08
      28.   Dave Levy # 10 is Correct 18:14  |  Solon 08/02/08
      29.   maureen anne # 12 18:24  |  frenz 08/02/08
      30.   indrajaya # 23 is correct; `party` indeed coming 18:31  |  frenz 08/02/08
      31.   silvienne # 24 is correct. no more `punishment.` time to kill. 18:33  |  frenz 08/02/08
      32.   silvienne # 10: wrong: america and the world will applaud 18:36  |  frenz 08/02/08
      33.   paulo & idiocy # 3 18:40  |  frenz 08/02/08
      34.   19 dear cipora. i do not want to hurt u`r... 20:02  |  bozhidarevski bob 08/02/08
      35.   terrorits sates and empires such as china, 20:18  |  bozhidarevski bob 08/02/08
      36.   19 Cipora - Victory is not an Exit Strategy 20:37  |  Mark of Lewiston 08/02/08
      37.   Go for it ... 23:15  |  spyguy 08/02/08
      38.   Retaliation 02:33  |  lee 09/02/08
      39.   #21, 36, Stephen & Mark of Lewiston 04:48  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/02/08
      40.   Cipora 05:40  |  Stephen in New York 09/02/08
      41.   Gaza Operation is a Go ! 06:15  |  Gary 09/02/08
      42.   David Levy 07:20  |  Pali-buster 09/02/08
      43.   Who needs Olmert, FRENZ for PM! 07:24  |  Viking 09/02/08
      44.   Just Do It! 07:27  |  Barry 09/02/08
      45.   Cipora-alternatives 07:39  |  Stephen in New York 09/02/08
      46.   39 Cipora - I see no Quick or Easy Answers 10:59  |  Mark of Lewiston 09/02/08
      47.   You Stone Age sorts, think what you`re saying ?? 11:35  |  michael mazur 09/02/08
      48.   Re: Stone Age people. 15:31  |  sandra chitayat 09/02/08
      49.   #47,#48,Delusional and Wishful Thinking 17:37  |  Gary 09/02/08
      50.   Sderot 20:47  |  Paul 09/02/08
      51.   Damn spyguy! 20:50  |  Paul 09/02/08
      52.   Gaza 20:53  |  Paul 09/02/08
      53.   #45, Sarin,etc. in Syria,Iran and elsewhere 01:28  |  Gary 10/02/08
      54.   Stay off the ground. Hamas not worth it. 23:24  |  GO IAF 10/02/08
     Today Online
    IAF kills top Hamas man; 2 brothers hurt in Sderot Qassam strike
    Responses: 95
    PA negotiator: IDF escalation in Gaza will hurt peace talks
    Responses: 142
    IDF: Hezbollah Katyushas, missiles back in S. Lebanon
    Responses: 65
    Gaza and Israel - more like partners than enemies
    Responses: 51
    Silvan Shalom: For Israel, sanctions on Iran are best option
    Responses: 24
    Rosner's Domain
    Think Clinton won the Jewish vote in California? Think again
    McCain found a tool with which to woo conservative Republicans: Israel
    Why many Jewish men go beardless (WTR)
    New poll: Is it legitimate to cut electricity to Gaza?
    Factor: How's McCain better than Obama


    More Headlines
    22:26 PM: Terror can't be wiped out in one fell swoop
    22:03 Court rules to extradite alleged U.S. serial molester Mondrowitz
    21:34 PA negotiator Qureia warns IDF escalation in Gaza will hurt talks
    22:27 Hebron settlers and Arab clan chiefs hold 'reconciliation talks'
    23:06 AG: Single-sex couples may adopt child not biologically related to them
    21:12 Rabbis fear prayer to convert Jews will harm ties with Vatican
    20:12 Tunisian-born Israelis win state compensation for Holocaust suffering
    22:56 Sharon documentary examines reasons for 2005 Gaza pullout
    21:11 IDF kills Gazan at border; brothers hurt in Qassam strike
    22:57 Tel Aviv decides to retain contract with Gaza City as `twin city`
    21:25 Northern border towns to strike after gov't nixes tax breaks
    23:24 Ex-Dutch MP and Islamic critic Hirsi Ali seeks French nationality
    Previous Editions
    Special Offers