Jewish Democrats: Half pro-Clinton, half pro-Obama

1.

This new Gallup poll, focused on the attention on the Democratic Jewish voters and their preferences, is first and foremost proof that the Jewish vote counts, and that in the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama it plays a distinct role.

As I wrote more than once, some aspects of the debates related to Obama's background and advisors and true beliefs, originated and culminated in the American Jewish community. For example, the role former Clinton advisor Rob Malley is playing in Obama's campaign, on which I wrote: "This specific showdown over Obama's candidacy is a dispute between Jews".

So, the people of Gallup have decided to dedicate a poll to this small, influential, and unique group of voters. They show a slight preference for Clinton over Obama, 48% to 43%. This should not come as a huge surprise to readers of this column: "Many Jews would vote for Obama, especially the younger generation. With all the brouhaha about him and Israel, and Farrakhan, and the smear campaign, and the emails and all the rest, Obama has many Jewish followers, and will have even more if he wins the nomination".

2.

As the exit polls have shown in the past, Obama has won the Jewish vote in a number of states. He faired well in Massachusetts and Connecticut, and was able to overcome Clinton in California.

With the Gallup poll in hand he can now say that the effort to woo the Jewish vote has paid off. Based on interviews with 348 Jewish Democratic voters, the poll tells us that like the rest of the Democratic field, "So far this month, all Democratic voters regardless of religious affiliation are equally divided (46% each) in their nomination preferences between Clinton and Obama".

3.

The poll is very sketchy and does not have many other details with which to try and draw further conclusions about the Jewish voters it is talking about. It does contain, though, comparisons to other religious groups.

"Clinton does better among Catholic Democratic voters, leading Obama by nearly 20 percentage points" and Protestants, similarly to Jews, "divide about equally between Obama (47%) and Clinton (44%)". Democrats with no religious preference prefer Obama (54% to 40%), as do "those who practice non-Christian religions (61% to 32%)". The latter, some will definitely point out, include the Muslim voters, who while they may be few in number, are a group that can play an important role in some crucial states.

4.

You will keep hearing many stories and analysts questioning the standings of Obama among Jews. Here are some examples from the last couple of days:

Obama Walks a Difficult Path as He Courts Jewish Voters reported the New York Times. And this commentator wrote that "If I were advising Barack Obama, I would make a concerted effort to woo Jewish America back into his camp". And finally, this piece from UPI is quoting the not-exactly bi-partisan American Thinker which states that "Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama is having a difficult time connecting with Jewish voters".

A great story, full of drama, with this one tiny problem: is it even true?

5.

One last word of caution: We do not know yet the extent to which the Wright affair will influence the Jewish vote (the Gallup poll, though, can give some indication that it did not hurt badly Obama so far). I believe that John McCain has a better chance of gaining more Jewish voters than his two Republican predecessors (Bush & Bush) did, and I also believe that future surprises might change the tendencies of some of the Jewish voters.

And there is another question: What will the half of Jewish Democratic voters that prefer Clinton over Obama do if he becomes the nominee? Will they vote for him, like most Democrats will definitely do, will some of them defect, or will many do no such thing? We cannot answer this question with the data that's available now.

However, I think that most of those believing that Obama has a real problem with the Jewish vote are those who want him to have such a problem. They have no way of proving it, and tend to ignore the great promise that's inherent to the Obama candidacy from the narrow Jewish point of view. "A promise no Jewish liberal can ignore".

Today on Rosner's Domain:

A dialogue with one of Obama's advisors on the Middle East: Former ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer. Read it here. Send your questions to rosnersdomain@haaretz.co.il.