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An armored vehicle used by Hamas in Saturday's attack. (IDF Spokesman)
Last update - 10:46 21/04/2008
Analysis / Keeping Gaza quiet until Israel's Independence Day
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Israel, Hamas, IDF 

Hamas' failed attack at the Kerem Shalom crossing on Passover eve shows that the organization is prepared to put a lot at risk to lift Israel's economic blockade on the Gaza Strip, and to try to abduct more soldiers to get talks moving on the release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit.

Even while various intermediaries are trying to effect a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, the temptation to operate seems too great for Hamas' military wing. According to the Israel Defense Forces, Hamas operatives believed they had identified a promising breach in Israel's defenses: the Kerem Shalom crossing, where 200 trucks cross to meet "humanitarian" needs in the Strip each week. It was preceded by the Nahal Oz fuel terminal attack on April 9, where two Israelis civilians were killed.

An attack on the crossings might cause Israel to increase sanctions. Hamas does not necessarily view this as a bad thing, although 1.5 million civilians in the Strip will pay the price. A more severe crisis could result in international intervention, which would force Israel to open the crossings.
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However, Gaza experts say Hamas wants to achieve calm, but that it wants to do so from a position of strength. The Hamas leadership understands that Israel does not want to embark on a major operation, at least not in the coming month. Between Passover, Independence Day and another visit by U.S. President George W. Bush, drafting the reserves is not a preferred or even reasonable option.

If Saturday's Hamas action had succeeded, it would have helped the group keep public opinion in the Strip on its side, even if it agrees soon to a cease-fire and to restrain the smaller, more extreme organizations.

The IDF believes the Hamas office in Damascus gave the green light for the attack a few months ago, but it is difficult to ascertain whether Hamas' political bureau leader in Damascus, Khaled Meshal, knew about the timing. On Friday he was meeting in Syria with former U.S. president Jimmy Carter. If the attack had succeeded, the Hamas leader would have appeared not to be in control of his people in Gaza.

Israel's response to the Hamas attack in the coming weeks will probably be limited until the celebrations end. But a large number of civilian casualties, on our side or theirs, can ignite the Strip before Independence Day.

IDF success depends greatly on the quick judgment of the commander in the field. Saturday it was the Bedouin Desert Battalion deputy commander, Major Wahid, who correctly foresaw the impending explosion of a booby-trapped vehicle, and ordered his men into protected vehicles, certainly limiting casualties.

Despite a leg injury from the second explosion, Wahid continued to command the forces that surrounded and killed the driver of the armored vehicle. Almost two years ago, at almost exactly that spot, the battalion was unable to prevent Shalit's abduction. This is the proof that lessons have been learned. It also shows another misconception: The armored vehicles Israel plans to transfer to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank have been described as useless weapons, easily targeted by the Israel Air Force. But they served Hamas in its abduction plan.

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      1.   The Results of Carters Visit 06:21  |  * BEN JABO 21/04/08
      2.   Hamas used Carter`s visit as cover for the attack 06:54  |  Voice of Reason 21/04/08
      3.   Peace anyone? 07:58  |  rick 21/04/08
      4.   A decent solution for the Arabs of Judea, Samaria and Gaza. 08:31  |  Robert Bernier 21/04/08
      5.   WHAT "abduction plan"? gimme a break! 08:44  |  eric 21/04/08
      6.   #5 eric is taying up far too long and sees visions 09:13  |  v hardman 21/04/08
      7.   Keeping Gaza quiet until the Americans order us otherwise 09:24  |  MiddleStanian 21/04/08
      8.   A decent solution? 09:47  |  Mosche 21/04/08
      9.   #5, eric, calm down 10:01  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 21/04/08
      10.   "put a lot at risk"? No, the opposite 10:15  |  David Teich 21/04/08
      11.   HAMAS IS ACHIEVING A TOP FORM 10:22  |  indrajaya 21/04/08
      12.   Hamas seeking calm? Quite the opposite 10:23  |  Natallie Durson 21/04/08
      13.   Hamas not ready to "put a lot at risk to lift ...blockade" 10:25  |  Joe Sittizen 21/04/08
      14.   eric #5 10:46  |  S 21/04/08
      15.   "Prepared to risk alot"?? What the hell? 10:53  |  Rachel 21/04/08
      16.   Israel waits until it`s too late and the country ceases to exist 11:25  |  Absolute Sweden 21/04/08
      17.   HAMAS ACHIEVED THEIR GOAL 11:26  |  indrajaya 21/04/08
      18.   three cheers 12:07  |  just me 21/04/08
      19.   a lull is good idea but... 12:37  |  Gaza resident 21/04/08
      20.   # 9 cipora 13:29  |  eric 21/04/08
      21.   Gaza resident 13:47  |  just me 21/04/08
      22.   Same old theme 14:10  |  Merle 21/04/08
      23.   ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS -For WHAT? 14:25  |  Dolly 21/04/08
      24.   # 14 to "S" (2nd try) 14:29  |  eric 21/04/08
      25.   In his televised interview with CNN`s Nick Robertosn,Khalid 15:41  |  lakshmi 21/04/08
      26.   Simply admit Disengagement was a disaster and retake Gaza forever 15:45  |  Chaim 21/04/08
      27.   Offshore gas 15:49  |  Dr D 21/04/08
      28.   If Gaza ever ignites Israelis are going to another galaxy... 16:37  |  Dutch 21/04/08
      29.   #28 Dutch - You`re already in that Galaxy 17:25  |  * BEN JABO 21/04/08
      30.   #17 indrajaya 17:52  |  * BEN JABO 21/04/08
      31.   Armored vehicles capture from Fatah 17:55  |  * BEN JABO 21/04/08
      32.   eric #24 part 1 19:59  |  S 21/04/08
      33.   A TROJAN HORSE NAMED CARTER 20:12  |  * BEN JABO 21/04/08
      34.   eric #24 part 2 20:28  |  S 21/04/08
      35.   #32 "S" 00:23  |  Silvienne 22/04/08
      36.   35 Silly & Vain - A pathetic advocate 04:44  |  Ibn Musa 22/04/08
      37.   # 34 to "S" 07:53  |  eric 22/04/08
      38.   # 33 time to prove your talk, ben jabo 08:18  |  eric 22/04/08
      39.   eric talking about "mindlessly parroting"? 13:40  |  David Teich 22/04/08
      40.   eric #37 16:01  |  S 22/04/08
      41.   #38 Eric - I don`t have to prove it 17:38  |  * BEN JABO 22/04/08
      42.   #33-2 Eric 17:40  |  * BEN JABO 22/04/08
      43.   # 40 to "S" (2nd try) 15:45  |  eric 23/04/08
      44.   # 39 to the selective david teich (2nd try) 13:48  |  eric 24/04/08
      45.   43: Now eric`s running and lying at the same time 14:09  |  David Teich 24/04/08
      46.   44: wow, inconvenient facts don`t matter, huh eric? p1 17:58  |  David Teich 24/04/08
      47.   44: wow, inconvenient facts don`t matter, huh eric? p2 18:03  |  David Teich 24/04/08
      48.   eric #43 you may have to satisfy yourself with David Teich 18:07  |  S 24/04/08
      49.   # 48 to "S" 01:12  |  eric 26/04/08
      50.   David Teich... 05:23  |  Silvienne 26/04/08
      51.   "S" 05:24  |  Silvienne 26/04/08
      52.   # 47 to david teich (3rd try) 06:59  |  eric 26/04/08
      53.   #50 Silly Vain 07:54  |  * BEN JABO 26/04/08
      54.   #51 Silly Vain to "S" - How about the facts 17:43  |  * BEN JABO 26/04/08
      55.   there are 365 days in a year... 11:18  |  eric 27/04/08
      56.   #55 Eric - Yes, I have a question 17:43  |  * BEN JABO 27/04/08
      57.   moon cycles & phases, days, hours, minutes, & seconds 22:11  |  eric 27/04/08
      58.   #57 eric if this is the best you have to do 06:20  |  * BEN JABO 28/04/08
      59.   50: Silvienne, supporting terrorism again (2nd try) 13:45  |  David Teich 29/04/08
      60.   52: If they`re lies, eric, you could disprove them (2nd try) 13:45  |  David Teich 29/04/08
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